They don't have all that much to gain by lying, but they have much to lose by telling the truth: that they don't know who did it. "We're not yet sure, but we're

They don't have all that much to gain by lying, but they have much to lose by telling the truth: that they don't know who did it. "We're not yet sure, but we're working on it" is often the honest answer, but sadly, it's a political and PR deathtrap. It's perceived as weakness and vulnerability, and political opponents can spin it up as incompetence. Quickly, confidently, and decisively fingering a known bad guy, regardless of the apparent connection, is the safest short-term political choice. You'll notice that our government has been pretty big on this strategy over the years. The consequences are often fraught with peril, or at least with embarrassment -- but if the chickens come home to roost, we can always blame "bad intelligence," or fire a Secretary of Something, or just dig in our heels and double down on the confidence.