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For a good example of confirmation bias watch Derren Brown's "The System" [1] where he makes a woman believe an unknown benefactor has a foolproof system for be

For a good example of confirmation bias watch Derren Brown's "The System" [1] where he makes a woman believe an unknown benefactor has a foolproof system for betting on horses. "Mail Order Prophet" [2] by Alfred Hitchock has a similar idea. [1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4] [2]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zh0MvRagES0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zh0MvRagES0

sukilot 12y ago
Richard Feyman told a similar story about con man he met in Vegas. He talks about the probability computations needed to work out each step in the scam -- how the con man makes money off a "no-risk trial, I will pay your bet if you lose") Mathnet on 321-Contact did the mail order prophet scam, and my dad's stockbroker friend once joked about running the same scam.
- AndyNemmity 12y ago
  A mathnet reference, wow. My favorite show as a kid, I even show my kids it today. Edit: Found the episode for you https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj-XMRu_q4s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj-XMRu_q4s
  - casion 12y ago
    Man, this just lead me to tracking down and watching every Mathman segment I could find. I watched Square One so much as a kid and it directly inspired my love of engineer and math.
unholiness 12y ago
I love Darren Brown, but that particular con doesn't really exemplify confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is a selective willingness believe new information only when it conforms to your previous beliefs. The system is a good example of how a limited perspective can introduce those false beliefs in the first place - namely, when every horse you bet on wins, you start to think there's a system. But a the key part of confirmation bias isn't acceptance of information which fits your beliefs, it's the rejection of information that doesn't. For a good example of confirmation bias by Darren Brown, in his videos on psychic readings [1], he throws a multitude of information out, and people latch on to information which confirms his psychic abilities, and ignore the rest, making his abilities completely unfalsifiable. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_3L9lB1Qtg&t=2m18s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_3L9lB1Qtg&t=2m18s

sukilot 12y ago

Richard Feyman told a similar story about con man he met in Vegas. He talks about the probability computations needed to work out each step in the scam -- how the con man makes money off a "no-risk trial, I will pay your bet if you lose") Mathnet on 321-Contact did the mail order prophet scam, and my dad's stockbroker friend once joked about running the same scam.

AndyNemmity 12y ago
A mathnet reference, wow. My favorite show as a kid, I even show my kids it today. Edit: Found the episode for you https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj-XMRu_q4s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj-XMRu_q4s
- casion 12y ago
  Man, this just lead me to tracking down and watching every Mathman segment I could find. I watched Square One so much as a kid and it directly inspired my love of engineer and math.

unholiness 12y ago

I love Darren Brown, but that particular con doesn't really exemplify confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is a selective willingness believe new information only when it conforms to your previous beliefs. The system is a good example of how a limited perspective can introduce those false beliefs in the first place - namely, when every horse you bet on wins, you start to think there's a system. But a the key part of confirmation bias isn't acceptance of information which fits your beliefs, it's the rejection of information that doesn't. For a good example of confirmation bias by Darren Brown, in his videos on psychic readings [1], he throws a multitude of information out, and people latch on to information which confirms his psychic abilities, and ignore the rest, making his abilities completely unfalsifiable. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_3L9lB1Qtg&t=2m18s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_3L9lB1Qtg&t=2m18s