3 ms·
> Given p≤0.05, you'd expect 19/20 to be reproducible. No, that's not the case; follow your link to "Why Most Published Research Findings are False" to see wh
by capnrefsmmat 12y ago
> Given p≤0.05, you'd expect 19/20 to be reproducible.
No, that's not the case; follow your link to "Why Most Published Research Findings are False" to see why that's not the case. The "positive predictive value" of a discovery, even without any bias, is very different from what the p value would imply.
- ekidd 12y agoYes, this is an excellent point. To take an extreme example, if there are no true, interesting results to be discovered in a field of research, then any study claiming such a result is by definition false. Analogously, if none of your employees do drugs, all positive drug tests are false positives.