7 ms·

Just on the subject of programmer salaries, I was talking with someone who had much more experience in the computing industry than myself and he pointed out som

by sosuke 12y ago

Just on the subject of programmer salaries, I was talking with someone who had much more experience in the computing industry than myself and he pointed out something I'd never known. He said that programmer salaries from pre-bubble days was six-figures, and that we're still in that range, and not higher is proof that salaries have been kept low. Six-figures today is not what six-figures was worth in 1998. Inflation alone from $100,000 1998 to 2014 is $144,877.91 using http://www.usinflationcalculator.com http://www.usinflationcalculator.com And yes, I don't trust anyone who cries foul about a shortage of workers and then offers 40% under market wages, anecdote of course.

michaelochurch 12y ago
What seems to be happening is that Silicon Valley wages are flat or down (relative to 1998) but the rest of the country is improving. There actually is good news here, though it might seem otherwise if one takes a Valley-centric approach. In 1998, software engineers in the Midwest generally didn't make six figures. $70,000 was a strong salary for a mid-career (5-10 years) engineer. The $100-140k figures were limited to the Bay Area and New York (around Wall Street) and possibly Chicago (also finance). In 2014, engineers in the Bay Area have lost ground relative to the housing market, and have lost social position relative to well-connected "serial founders" and investors... but on the other hand, you can now work in any of the top ~20 hubs and make 80-95% of what you'd make in the Bay Area.
- Bahamut 12y ago
  That is not true - my compensation has grown by about 100% moving from DC to the Valley a half year ago, and it still isn't as high as I believe it should be. From what I understand, DC is one of the better areas in the country for tech as well.
no_wave 12y ago
By Paul Graham's description in that "Let in the 95%" article, companies are standing around with their dicks in their hands hoping that they find "the best" engineers, but on the cheap. If a company wants to hire 30 more "great" engineers, but isn't bumping up their pay to get at least 15 at a higher rate instead... there's something really off happening. It's standard economic theory that wages are sticky. I think for a while, at least the past three years, junior developers (especially in web dev) have been overvalued and seniors undervalued. From my recent job search, I think this is starting to change, which is why the whole "not enough engineers" is reaching a fever pitch (ie, we can't find seniors at the traditionally understood market rate, as everyone realizes seniors are a better buy right now). As it stands, career programmers in the US who are good but not celebrities generally try to move into management/consulting/whatever because their career stalls otherwise. Solve that problem (PAY MORE) and we've got our programmers.
- revelation 12y ago
  And, besides the dick in their hands part, what Graham didn't mention in his warm christmas tale of meritocracy, they also make deals to not competete against others on talent, to fix (i.e. ruin further) what is already an extremely dysfunctional market (when did you last ask your coworker what she made?).
  - amerliore 12y ago
    How can Paul Graham sit there and not mention the anti-competitive and illegal collusion of the top tech employers while he tells us to vote against our own financial self-interest? He wants us to vote even more money into his pockets, and vote to undermine our wages, and he doesn't even give the smallest mention to the fact that the most respectable and respected tech employers have been fucking us over for years! So disingenuous, so pernicious.
  - arunabha 12y ago
    What's even worse is that the whole issue of the wage suppression saga has been conveniently forgotten by the tech elites and media. The case is still ongoing after the judge threw out the settlement Google et all offered, but the last begrudging mention of this in the tech or mainstream media was in Aug. Nothing at all since then.
jmadsen 12y ago
This is something I realized just a few days ago, looking back. 11 years ago I left a Silicon Valley software company's IT department, where I was making $85,000. Doing standard IT work. 11 years ago. A lot has happened since then, but no I don't think wages have been going up at all.
sheetjs 12y ago
> anyone who cries foul about a shortage of workers Those people generally use the phrase to mean "a shortage of workers willing to accept below-market wages and invest all of their time and energy in a company while bearing the downside risk of a entrepreneur but none of the upside."
- sanxiyn 12y ago
  On the subject of risk, I found "Capital vs labor: who risks more?" convincing. The author opines labor risks more, and I agree. http://yosefk.com/blog/capital-vs-labor-who-risks-more.html http://yosefk.com/blog/capital-vs-labor-who-risks-more.html
- wdewind 12y ago
  > Those people generally use the phrase to mean "a shortage of workers willing to accept below-market wages and invest all of their time and energy in a company while bearing the downside risk of a entrepreneur but none of the upside." I agree that salaries are an issue, but I can't agree with this attitude which seems so prevalent on hacker news recently. First of all, the downside risk an entrepreneur faces is huge. We like to say we are the type of nation and culture that accepts failure and encourages risk, and compared to other places that may be true. But the reality for an entrepreneur coming out of a business is usually not super easy. Few companies are looking to hire people who ran unsuccessful businesses - the entrepreneur skillset tends to make it hard to market oneself. On the other hand, an engineer coming out of a failed startup will have the same trouble finding work they had as they went in. In terms of upside, negotiate a position that makes sense for you. You're the only one responsible for how much of the upside you share.
  - jacquesm 12y ago
    > But the reality for an entrepreneur coming out of a business is usually not super easy. Few companies are looking to hire people who ran unsuccessful businesses - the entrepreneur skillset tends to make it hard to market oneself. That's just about 100% opposite to my experience, both firsthand and by observing others. Why do you state this with such certainty? Keep in mind that there are huge differences from country to country about how failure is perceived. In Germany what you write might by true to some extent, but in NL it wouldn't be and in the US it would be a badge of honour and people would be more than glad to have you.
chvid 12y ago
Absolutely; the programmer's wages even today are lower than the were in 2000. Of course 2000 was a peak. Rather than just looking at general price inflation, you should look at cost-of-living at the tech hotspots (the big cities, silicon valley). That of course makes things even more dire. Luckily you too can make the next big thing, sell your startup and then live happily as a venture capitalist / philanthropist.
morgante 12y ago
In principle, I agree with most commentators on HN that if there were actually a shortage we'd expect to see salaries rising. Yet, in practice, it does seem that there's simply an absolute shortage of experienced developers. I've been hiring developers at my job for most of the past year, yet we have never had an offer turned down. Rather, we see only a trickle of applicants, very few of whom are event remotely qualified. If we actually saw a great developer, I'm sure we could put together a fantastic compensation package (despite being an early-stage startup, we pay above market for NYC). Yet all we see are mediocre developers, and few of those. It's hard not to call this a labor shortage when my colleagues hiring for other positions (marketing, writing, etc.) see 100x the number of applicants with 1/10 as much outreach/advertising. Given that it's impossible to produce more senior developers in a 1-2 year timeframe, what alternatives do people suggest to immigration?
- selmnoo 12y ago
  > Given that it's impossible to produce more senior developers in a 1-2 year timeframe, what alternatives do people suggest to immigration? Why do we operate under the assumption that these companies are entitled to as many unicorns as they want? Why shouldn't they just go out of business? After the whole collusion ordeal when it became abundantly clear that on one side there are VCs, founders, and C-levels who work to suppress our wages -- and on the other side, us, I actually want to see them lose and get hurt after all the terrible things they did to us.
  - morgante 12y ago
    The world isn't nearly as binary as that. I'm not a VC or founder. I'm a developer just like you, trying to deliver cool products—but doing so requires more developers. If my company was trying to suppress wages, or refused to pay above market, then I'd agree with you that we have no right to ask for more talent. But we're perfectly willing to pay for talent—we just can't find any. I wouldn't be surprised if the number of senior developers on the market was less than 10% of the number of open positions.
    - 12y ago
IndianAstronaut 12y ago
>He said that programmer salaries from pre-bubble days was six-figures, and that we're still in that range, and not higher is proof that salaries have been kept low. The pre bubble days had plenty of immigration, not to mention NAFTA was in full swing as well. The job and salary situation seems to be poorly correlated with salaries and job availability.

by sosuke 12y ago

michaelochurch 12y ago

What seems to be happening is that Silicon Valley wages are flat or down (relative to 1998) but the rest of the country is improving. There actually is good news here, though it might seem otherwise if one takes a Valley-centric approach. In 1998, software engineers in the Midwest generally didn't make six figures. $70,000 was a strong salary for a mid-career (5-10 years) engineer. The $100-140k figures were limited to the Bay Area and New York (around Wall Street) and possibly Chicago (also finance). In 2014, engineers in the Bay Area have lost ground relative to the housing market, and have lost social position relative to well-connected "serial founders" and investors... but on the other hand, you can now work in any of the top ~20 hubs and make 80-95% of what you'd make in the Bay Area.

Bahamut 12y ago
That is not true - my compensation has grown by about 100% moving from DC to the Valley a half year ago, and it still isn't as high as I believe it should be. From what I understand, DC is one of the better areas in the country for tech as well.

no_wave 12y ago

By Paul Graham's description in that "Let in the 95%" article, companies are standing around with their dicks in their hands hoping that they find "the best" engineers, but on the cheap. If a company wants to hire 30 more "great" engineers, but isn't bumping up their pay to get at least 15 at a higher rate instead... there's something really off happening. It's standard economic theory that wages are sticky. I think for a while, at least the past three years, junior developers (especially in web dev) have been overvalued and seniors undervalued. From my recent job search, I think this is starting to change, which is why the whole "not enough engineers" is reaching a fever pitch (ie, we can't find seniors at the traditionally understood market rate, as everyone realizes seniors are a better buy right now). As it stands, career programmers in the US who are good but not celebrities generally try to move into management/consulting/whatever because their career stalls otherwise. Solve that problem (PAY MORE) and we've got our programmers.

revelation 12y ago
And, besides the dick in their hands part, what Graham didn't mention in his warm christmas tale of meritocracy, they also make deals to not competete against others on talent, to fix (i.e. ruin further) what is already an extremely dysfunctional market (when did you last ask your coworker what she made?).
- amerliore 12y ago
  How can Paul Graham sit there and not mention the anti-competitive and illegal collusion of the top tech employers while he tells us to vote against our own financial self-interest? He wants us to vote even more money into his pockets, and vote to undermine our wages, and he doesn't even give the smallest mention to the fact that the most respectable and respected tech employers have been fucking us over for years! So disingenuous, so pernicious.
- arunabha 12y ago
  What's even worse is that the whole issue of the wage suppression saga has been conveniently forgotten by the tech elites and media. The case is still ongoing after the judge threw out the settlement Google et all offered, but the last begrudging mention of this in the tech or mainstream media was in Aug. Nothing at all since then.

jmadsen 12y ago

This is something I realized just a few days ago, looking back. 11 years ago I left a Silicon Valley software company's IT department, where I was making $85,000. Doing standard IT work. 11 years ago. A lot has happened since then, but no I don't think wages have been going up at all.

sheetjs 12y ago

> anyone who cries foul about a shortage of workers Those people generally use the phrase to mean "a shortage of workers willing to accept below-market wages and invest all of their time and energy in a company while bearing the downside risk of a entrepreneur but none of the upside."

sanxiyn 12y ago
On the subject of risk, I found "Capital vs labor: who risks more?" convincing. The author opines labor risks more, and I agree. http://yosefk.com/blog/capital-vs-labor-who-risks-more.html http://yosefk.com/blog/capital-vs-labor-who-risks-more.html
wdewind 12y ago
> Those people generally use the phrase to mean "a shortage of workers willing to accept below-market wages and invest all of their time and energy in a company while bearing the downside risk of a entrepreneur but none of the upside." I agree that salaries are an issue, but I can't agree with this attitude which seems so prevalent on hacker news recently. First of all, the downside risk an entrepreneur faces is huge. We like to say we are the type of nation and culture that accepts failure and encourages risk, and compared to other places that may be true. But the reality for an entrepreneur coming out of a business is usually not super easy. Few companies are looking to hire people who ran unsuccessful businesses - the entrepreneur skillset tends to make it hard to market oneself. On the other hand, an engineer coming out of a failed startup will have the same trouble finding work they had as they went in. In terms of upside, negotiate a position that makes sense for you. You're the only one responsible for how much of the upside you share.
- jacquesm 12y ago
  > But the reality for an entrepreneur coming out of a business is usually not super easy. Few companies are looking to hire people who ran unsuccessful businesses - the entrepreneur skillset tends to make it hard to market oneself. That's just about 100% opposite to my experience, both firsthand and by observing others. Why do you state this with such certainty? Keep in mind that there are huge differences from country to country about how failure is perceived. In Germany what you write might by true to some extent, but in NL it wouldn't be and in the US it would be a badge of honour and people would be more than glad to have you.

chvid 12y ago

Absolutely; the programmer's wages even today are lower than the were in 2000. Of course 2000 was a peak. Rather than just looking at general price inflation, you should look at cost-of-living at the tech hotspots (the big cities, silicon valley). That of course makes things even more dire. Luckily you too can make the next big thing, sell your startup and then live happily as a venture capitalist / philanthropist.

morgante 12y ago

In principle, I agree with most commentators on HN that if there were actually a shortage we'd expect to see salaries rising. Yet, in practice, it does seem that there's simply an absolute shortage of experienced developers. I've been hiring developers at my job for most of the past year, yet we have never had an offer turned down. Rather, we see only a trickle of applicants, very few of whom are event remotely qualified. If we actually saw a great developer, I'm sure we could put together a fantastic compensation package (despite being an early-stage startup, we pay above market for NYC). Yet all we see are mediocre developers, and few of those. It's hard not to call this a labor shortage when my colleagues hiring for other positions (marketing, writing, etc.) see 100x the number of applicants with 1/10 as much outreach/advertising. Given that it's impossible to produce more senior developers in a 1-2 year timeframe, what alternatives do people suggest to immigration?

selmnoo 12y ago
> Given that it's impossible to produce more senior developers in a 1-2 year timeframe, what alternatives do people suggest to immigration? Why do we operate under the assumption that these companies are entitled to as many unicorns as they want? Why shouldn't they just go out of business? After the whole collusion ordeal when it became abundantly clear that on one side there are VCs, founders, and C-levels who work to suppress our wages -- and on the other side, us, I actually want to see them lose and get hurt after all the terrible things they did to us.
- morgante 12y ago
  The world isn't nearly as binary as that. I'm not a VC or founder. I'm a developer just like you, trying to deliver cool products—but doing so requires more developers. If my company was trying to suppress wages, or refused to pay above market, then I'd agree with you that we have no right to ask for more talent. But we're perfectly willing to pay for talent—we just can't find any. I wouldn't be surprised if the number of senior developers on the market was less than 10% of the number of open positions.
  - 12y ago

IndianAstronaut 12y ago

>He said that programmer salaries from pre-bubble days was six-figures, and that we're still in that range, and not higher is proof that salaries have been kept low. The pre bubble days had plenty of immigration, not to mention NAFTA was in full swing as well. The job and salary situation seems to be poorly correlated with salaries and job availability.