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Hm, an article from pg I don't really agree with (even if I am benefiting from EU's open labor market). There are plenty of 'exceptional' programmers out there

Hm, an article from pg I don't really agree with (even if I am benefiting from EU's open labor market). There are plenty of 'exceptional' programmers out there with not exceptional salaries. Anybody is free to hire one. There are a couple of problems though: - they're hard to identify - they might be exceptional in one situation and mediocre in another situation. The fact you are doing great at company X and task Y does not guarantee you'll be a rockstar at company W and task Z. - you don't want to pay for them. "I asked the CEO of a startup with about 70 programmers how many more he'd hire if he could get all the great programmers he wanted. He said "We'd hire 30 tomorrow morning." Well, if they're really exceptional and they worth 100x more than the others then pay them $5M/year and they're going to come to you. I know this won't happen, and the reason for that is exactly the fact that you have no clue how much they're going to worth for you. You could even pay only $500k/y to these excellent guys but no startup does that because they're not sure. So please let's forget these stories about rockstar programmers and whatever. It's simple: if US could tap the international talent pool without restrictions then labor costs would go down by 50% OR it'd be easier to find good ones quickly at the same price, therefore one of the biggest risk factor in startups would be less of a problem. I completely support this argument, by the way. Don't dilute this debate with 10x (1000x?) programmers and companies who'd hire 30 people tomorrow morning at the market price (??) if they could find them. *Edit: I have zero problem with downvotes but I'm genuinely interested in counterarguments, so please explain where am I wrong. :)

wrs 12y ago
Paying more will just shuffle around the exceptional programmers who are already in the US. But pg's point is that the US should be trying to attract more exceptional programmers. And the more the better, because they don't just add talent, they multiply it. (That's one thing that makes them "exceptional".) The secret sauce of Silicon Valley is not just the exceptional people, it's that they're all in the same place.
- hsitz 12y ago
  Parent poster has a point that the difficulty of actually identifying the exceptional programmers poses a major problem here. P.G. has actually written about this himself, arguing that great programmers are the only ones who can identify other great programmers, and that they can only do this if they have collaborated with them on actual work. See the 'Recognition' section in "Great Hackers" essay, http://www.paulgraham.com/gh.html http://www.paulgraham.com/gh.html: "So who are the great hackers? How do you know when you meet one? That turns out to be very hard. Even hackers can't tell."
- cmdkeen 12y ago
  And that another country could attract those 95% and do great things with them. Several European countries are keen to do so, and with access to the EU's pool of citizens it would be a great place to try and a new tech hub from. Sadly anti-immigration and/or anti-capitalism feelings are also strong in many EU countries which hampers this movement. I wish the UK could make more of our draw.
  - hackerboos 12y ago
    anti-capitalism feelings are also strong in many EU countries Where?
  - tomp 12y ago
    > Sadly anti-immigration and/or anti-capitalism feelings are also strong in many EU countries which hampers this movement. I wish the UK could make more of our draw. AFAIK, there's no problem with freedom of movement for employees in the EU, not even to/from the UK. The only issue is wages; London startups pay really shitty salaries (£40-50K). Berlin's aren't much better (lower than London, but in a much cheaper city). It's the exact same problem as in the US - the salaries just aren't high enough to justify moving to and living in an expensive city.
- pastProlog 12y ago
  There already is a program to bring in exceptional programmers - the H1-B visa program. The 100,000 people it is bringing in a year is not enough? There are more exceptional programmers out there?
  - 23david 12y ago
    Fixing the H1-B program so that it's harder to game would probably be a great help. H1-B workers also should be given a way to voice complaints or report abuse without fear of repercussions from their host companies. But not sure that reforming H1-B will be an easy battle to fight. Many of the companies that have large H1-B workforces are also very politically connected and stand to lose a lot of money.
craigyk 12y ago
I agree with you; your second point is a good one. It's easier to increase the size of the pool rather than figure out how to better select within the current pool size; and if your concern is truly just getting "the best", it's cheaper to go abroad than to "steal" proven talent from competitors. If companies were willing to pay their top engineering talent anywhere close to C-level salaries, they would have no problem finding willing applicants. There is no legit argument for upsizing the H1B program that does not rest heavily on cost. That said, I am not against the US taking highly-skilled immigrants, even if it does temporarily depress salaries... The only bad things about the current program is the indentured servitude aspect of it... if tech companies were truly interested only in talent they wouldn't lobby to expand the H1B program, but open the borders more in general. But of course giving tech workers that much freedom would mean their expectations and demands would just quickly equilibrate more quickly, reducing the "value". I also don't completely buy his argument on percentages. Even poor kids in the US have probably had 100X more access to technology than their counterparts abroad. I think early access and exposure to technology is pretty important for developing the intuition that comes in useful when trying to understand how things work and appreciating and recognizing good design. I would guess that the US has a much larger percentage of the world's talented workers than is naively calculated based on population alone. A better measure would have some per capita weighting.
- zanny 12y ago
  Think of it from the perspective of the countries great engineers emigrate from. They lose the potential for their own economic growth and prosperity, and send their best to be shackled to a company in the US where they need to keep a job or be deported. It is possible, but very hard, to be entrepreneurial in that environment. But that is an essay and a half of nonsense to get into, about why they need to immigrate in the first place in such large numbers. In the same way monopolies are not healthy in any industry, having all the "great programmers" in the bay area would, I feel, stunt the potential of the industry by creating an insular monoculture.
marcell 12y ago
> You could even pay only $500k/y to these excellent guys but no startup does that because they're not sure In some cases, equity does provide this level of pay. The problem is there is no way to know which startup will get to 100x it's current value, and which one will flame out.

wrs 12y ago

Paying more will just shuffle around the exceptional programmers who are already in the US. But pg's point is that the US should be trying to attract more exceptional programmers. And the more the better, because they don't just add talent, they multiply it. (That's one thing that makes them "exceptional".) The secret sauce of Silicon Valley is not just the exceptional people, it's that they're all in the same place.

hsitz 12y ago
Parent poster has a point that the difficulty of actually identifying the exceptional programmers poses a major problem here. P.G. has actually written about this himself, arguing that great programmers are the only ones who can identify other great programmers, and that they can only do this if they have collaborated with them on actual work. See the 'Recognition' section in "Great Hackers" essay, http://www.paulgraham.com/gh.html http://www.paulgraham.com/gh.html: "So who are the great hackers? How do you know when you meet one? That turns out to be very hard. Even hackers can't tell."
cmdkeen 12y ago
And that another country could attract those 95% and do great things with them. Several European countries are keen to do so, and with access to the EU's pool of citizens it would be a great place to try and a new tech hub from. Sadly anti-immigration and/or anti-capitalism feelings are also strong in many EU countries which hampers this movement. I wish the UK could make more of our draw.
- hackerboos 12y ago
  anti-capitalism feelings are also strong in many EU countries Where?
- tomp 12y ago
  > Sadly anti-immigration and/or anti-capitalism feelings are also strong in many EU countries which hampers this movement. I wish the UK could make more of our draw. AFAIK, there's no problem with freedom of movement for employees in the EU, not even to/from the UK. The only issue is wages; London startups pay really shitty salaries (£40-50K). Berlin's aren't much better (lower than London, but in a much cheaper city). It's the exact same problem as in the US - the salaries just aren't high enough to justify moving to and living in an expensive city.
pastProlog 12y ago
There already is a program to bring in exceptional programmers - the H1-B visa program. The 100,000 people it is bringing in a year is not enough? There are more exceptional programmers out there?
- 23david 12y ago
  Fixing the H1-B program so that it's harder to game would probably be a great help. H1-B workers also should be given a way to voice complaints or report abuse without fear of repercussions from their host companies. But not sure that reforming H1-B will be an easy battle to fight. Many of the companies that have large H1-B workforces are also very politically connected and stand to lose a lot of money.

craigyk 12y ago

I agree with you; your second point is a good one. It's easier to increase the size of the pool rather than figure out how to better select within the current pool size; and if your concern is truly just getting "the best", it's cheaper to go abroad than to "steal" proven talent from competitors. If companies were willing to pay their top engineering talent anywhere close to C-level salaries, they would have no problem finding willing applicants. There is no legit argument for upsizing the H1B program that does not rest heavily on cost. That said, I am not against the US taking highly-skilled immigrants, even if it does temporarily depress salaries... The only bad things about the current program is the indentured servitude aspect of it... if tech companies were truly interested only in talent they wouldn't lobby to expand the H1B program, but open the borders more in general. But of course giving tech workers that much freedom would mean their expectations and demands would just quickly equilibrate more quickly, reducing the "value". I also don't completely buy his argument on percentages. Even poor kids in the US have probably had 100X more access to technology than their counterparts abroad. I think early access and exposure to technology is pretty important for developing the intuition that comes in useful when trying to understand how things work and appreciating and recognizing good design. I would guess that the US has a much larger percentage of the world's talented workers than is naively calculated based on population alone. A better measure would have some per capita weighting.

zanny 12y ago
Think of it from the perspective of the countries great engineers emigrate from. They lose the potential for their own economic growth and prosperity, and send their best to be shackled to a company in the US where they need to keep a job or be deported. It is possible, but very hard, to be entrepreneurial in that environment. But that is an essay and a half of nonsense to get into, about why they need to immigrate in the first place in such large numbers. In the same way monopolies are not healthy in any industry, having all the "great programmers" in the bay area would, I feel, stunt the potential of the industry by creating an insular monoculture.

marcell 12y ago

> You could even pay only $500k/y to these excellent guys but no startup does that because they're not sure In some cases, equity does provide this level of pay. The problem is there is no way to know which startup will get to 100x it's current value, and which one will flame out.