4 ms·

>The US has less than 5% of the world's population. Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed, 95% of great progr

by xiaoma 12y ago

>The US has less than 5% of the world's population. Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed, 95% of great programmers are born outside the US. This assumption is repeated throughout the essay, but I'm not particularly convinced it's true. Why would the qualities be evenly distributed between first world countries such as the US where programming is respected and well paid vs failed states like Nigeria or the war-torn Congo?

andrewliebchen 12y ago
I guess he thinks your born with the qualities of great programming. So, the meritocracy really can't exist then?
rjberry 12y ago
It's a nature vs nurture argument. I think Paul believes certain programmers have some innate quality that means they're magnitudes better than others. As it's innate it's not related to culture. As in you could give certain people as many opportunities and as much education as you like but they will only ever achieve mediocrity.
donall 12y ago
Well, he does say "if"... I think PG's point is that some people are naturally great, regardless of their environment. So, yes, Congo or Nigeria or whatever have a bunch of guys who might have been great programmers if given the opportunity. But in less extreme cases, i.e. most of the world, those naturally gifted folks find their way into a compsci program or start hacking on an old machine and teach themselves or whatever. So even if only half of the 95% of people born with great aptitude are found in places with modern amenities and good education systems, that's still 9x more than here in the US.
- SwellJoe 12y ago
  "So even if only half of the 95% of people born with great aptitude are found in places with modern amenities and good education systems, that's still 9x more than here in the US." Half is extremely optimistic. China and India contain a significant portion of the world's population, and there are significant populations in those nations that have never owned a computer. Longterm, it is likely that many of these nations will produce significantly more good people in STEM fields, since the US education system is almost laughably bad at teaching STEM and at convincing students that STEM is worth learning. If that trend of US students going into arts and humanities more than STEM fields, particularly among women and minorities, we're unlikely to see an improvement in this situation. I'm anti-border, and I think anyone should be able to work anywhere they want. But, I think the message should have two prongs: 1. Importing talent is mandatory and has no downside for Americans (except for Americans that don't like brown people) or the American economy. 2. Educating kids in STEM fields has to improve and kids, particularly girls and people of color, need better guidance about entering these fields. Both issues are pretty urgent, I think.
  - donall 12y ago
    A fair point about half being a little optimistic. But even if it is just Europe we consider, that's still doubling the population of great programmers and that seems like a win, objectively.
oldspiceman 12y ago
The states is made up of immigrants. Why wouldn't people outside the states be similarly talented? Sure if you don't have access to education you will not have the opportunity to develop your skills, but that doesn't mean you have less raw talent.
Amezarak 12y ago
There's also the assumption that all these companies have a burning need for exceptional talent, which is nonsense. Most companies are not doing anything exceptional, and there'd be no reason to pay exceptional programmer wages when you could pay competent programmer wages. 99% of startups do not need someone to "invent things an ordinary programmer would never even think of." They need someone to write bog-standard uninteresting[1] Javascript/RoR/whatever for their webapp which, to be sure, might be making our lives better but isn't doing anything technically special. To me the "handful" of consulting firms he mentions is massively downplayed. Most H1Bs, however talented, are being sucked up by those firms or by firms engaging in similar strategies, not startups. PG's goal would be just as well accomplished by focusing on the crackdown than opening the H1B gates wider - if we do that, then the usual suspects will simply and gladly suck up proportionally more. [1]EDIT: Uninteresting is probably not quite the right word. Even well-understood, solved problems can and are really interesting to some of us. But you don't need to find them interesting to re-solve them efficiently and competently.
zerr 12y ago
Do you honestly believe USA is a first world country in terms of availability/affordability of high quality welfare, healthcare and education systems?
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- dagw 12y ago
  Absolutely. Sure one can argue if it is a top 20 country when it comes to all those things, but it's certainly a first world country.
- bigtunacan 12y ago
  I do not believe the USA is "best in class" as far as first world countries go, but having traveled abroad to 3rd world countries things could certainly be a lot worse here. To give an example while in Belize I was told by one of the natives that in the event of a serious emergency one would probably die because just getting to the nearest hospital would take 4 hours best case scenario, but likely longer.
arh68 12y ago
It's a terrible assumption. If you believe Computer Science education has anything to do with programming ability, you shouldn't be surprised the US has many, if not most, of the best programmers already [1,2]. The trouble is identifying them successfully at minimal cost. Hiring & firing a poor programmer costs money. [1] http://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/university-subject-rankings/2014/computer-science-information-systems#sorting=rank+region=+country=+faculty=+stars=false+search= http://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/universit... [2] http://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/computer-science http://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/com...
eaurouge 12y ago
Nigeria is a failed state? When did this happen? Perhaps, you could just explain why you've deemed it a failed state.
- hackerboos 12y ago
  Nigeria is pretty stable considering it's neighbours. Sure they have problems in the north but I wouldn't got as far as to call it a failed state.

by xiaoma 12y ago

andrewliebchen 12y ago

I guess he thinks your born with the qualities of great programming. So, the meritocracy really can't exist then?

rjberry 12y ago

It's a nature vs nurture argument. I think Paul believes certain programmers have some innate quality that means they're magnitudes better than others. As it's innate it's not related to culture. As in you could give certain people as many opportunities and as much education as you like but they will only ever achieve mediocrity.

donall 12y ago

Well, he does say "if"... I think PG's point is that some people are naturally great, regardless of their environment. So, yes, Congo or Nigeria or whatever have a bunch of guys who might have been great programmers if given the opportunity. But in less extreme cases, i.e. most of the world, those naturally gifted folks find their way into a compsci program or start hacking on an old machine and teach themselves or whatever. So even if only half of the 95% of people born with great aptitude are found in places with modern amenities and good education systems, that's still 9x more than here in the US.

SwellJoe 12y ago
"So even if only half of the 95% of people born with great aptitude are found in places with modern amenities and good education systems, that's still 9x more than here in the US." Half is extremely optimistic. China and India contain a significant portion of the world's population, and there are significant populations in those nations that have never owned a computer. Longterm, it is likely that many of these nations will produce significantly more good people in STEM fields, since the US education system is almost laughably bad at teaching STEM and at convincing students that STEM is worth learning. If that trend of US students going into arts and humanities more than STEM fields, particularly among women and minorities, we're unlikely to see an improvement in this situation. I'm anti-border, and I think anyone should be able to work anywhere they want. But, I think the message should have two prongs: 1. Importing talent is mandatory and has no downside for Americans (except for Americans that don't like brown people) or the American economy. 2. Educating kids in STEM fields has to improve and kids, particularly girls and people of color, need better guidance about entering these fields. Both issues are pretty urgent, I think.
- donall 12y ago
  A fair point about half being a little optimistic. But even if it is just Europe we consider, that's still doubling the population of great programmers and that seems like a win, objectively.

oldspiceman 12y ago

The states is made up of immigrants. Why wouldn't people outside the states be similarly talented? Sure if you don't have access to education you will not have the opportunity to develop your skills, but that doesn't mean you have less raw talent.

Amezarak 12y ago

There's also the assumption that all these companies have a burning need for exceptional talent, which is nonsense. Most companies are not doing anything exceptional, and there'd be no reason to pay exceptional programmer wages when you could pay competent programmer wages. 99% of startups do not need someone to "invent things an ordinary programmer would never even think of." They need someone to write bog-standard uninteresting[1] Javascript/RoR/whatever for their webapp which, to be sure, might be making our lives better but isn't doing anything technically special. To me the "handful" of consulting firms he mentions is massively downplayed. Most H1Bs, however talented, are being sucked up by those firms or by firms engaging in similar strategies, not startups. PG's goal would be just as well accomplished by focusing on the crackdown than opening the H1B gates wider - if we do that, then the usual suspects will simply and gladly suck up proportionally more. [1]EDIT: Uninteresting is probably not quite the right word. Even well-understood, solved problems can and are really interesting to some of us. But you don't need to find them interesting to re-solve them efficiently and competently.

zerr 12y ago

Do you honestly believe USA is a first world country in terms of availability/affordability of high quality welfare, healthcare and education systems?

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
dagw 12y ago
Absolutely. Sure one can argue if it is a top 20 country when it comes to all those things, but it's certainly a first world country.
bigtunacan 12y ago
I do not believe the USA is "best in class" as far as first world countries go, but having traveled abroad to 3rd world countries things could certainly be a lot worse here. To give an example while in Belize I was told by one of the natives that in the event of a serious emergency one would probably die because just getting to the nearest hospital would take 4 hours best case scenario, but likely longer.

arh68 12y ago

It's a terrible assumption. If you believe Computer Science education has anything to do with programming ability, you shouldn't be surprised the US has many, if not most, of the best programmers already [1,2]. The trouble is identifying them successfully at minimal cost. Hiring & firing a poor programmer costs money. [1] http://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/university-subject-rankings/2014/computer-science-information-systems#sorting=rank+region=+country=+faculty=+stars=false+search= http://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/universit... [2] http://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/computer-science http://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/com...

eaurouge 12y ago

Nigeria is a failed state? When did this happen? Perhaps, you could just explain why you've deemed it a failed state.

hackerboos 12y ago
Nigeria is pretty stable considering it's neighbours. Sure they have problems in the north but I wouldn't got as far as to call it a failed state.