I suppose Bayes' theorem can help us estimate it: P(filesize is multiple of 8192 | crashed) = P(crashed | filesize is multiple of 8192) * P(filesize is multipl

I suppose Bayes' theorem can help us estimate it: P(filesize is multiple of 8192 | crashed) = P(crashed | filesize is multiple of 8192) * P(filesize is multiple of 8192)/P(crashed) Where: - The likelihood of crashing given the filesize is a multiple of 8192 is 1; - The naïve prior of the filesize being a multiple of 8192 is 1/8192; The task is now to estimate the probability P(crashed), which is the probability the program will crash for whatever reason.