The warrant canary is not an alarm that an NSL/etc has been served precisely because NSLs do not allow for any such alarm to be raised. The canary is an asserti

The warrant canary is not an alarm that an NSL/etc has been served precisely because NSLs do not allow for any such alarm to be raised. The canary is an assertion that this event has not happened up to a certain date, and so one issued at any point whatsoever is as valid (up to its issue date) as any other. It's not practical to release new canaries constantly, so there is always an interrim period between one and the next where it is unclear if the situation has changed. A due date/release schedule is a guideline to users for that interrim period. Last canary within one normal scheduled interval? Everything is normal. Last canary longer back? Now we must worry that the situation has changed, because if it hadn't the canary should have been updated. The release schedule is only that, though, a guideline for deciding during the period since issuance. It changes nothing about the fundamental nature of the canary as a claim up to the specified date. A new canary, early, on time, or late, makes the exact same assertion as each of the older canaries. It being late just prevents user confidence about the state of the service in the time period between 'expiration' and new issuance, the new issuance brings back this confidence. Releasing a canary late is a sin because it creates a time period in which the state of the service is in question, and frequent/lengthy/otherwise egregious incidents should reduce user trust in a service. That time period ends when a new canary is issued, though, as the protection of the canary is once again in place. But perhaps I simply misunderstand your ideas. Could you explain what you mean by a means other than analogy (which is honestly not particularly useful here, as the nature of signed text is different than the nature of birds)? Or a better question, if a new canary is issued, but late, then what is the actual scenario that users are not protected against?