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My solution to the Fermi Paradox: Who the hell knows, who the hell can know, when all we have is a sample size of 1 to extrapolate from. The solutions to the FP

My solution to the Fermi Paradox: Who the hell knows, who the hell can know, when all we have is a sample size of 1 to extrapolate from. The solutions to the FP seem to be representative of the personal beliefs of whomever is discussing it.

Udo 12y ago
Of course no one can now right now, it's not one of these things that can be solved by theoretical work alone. At some point - assuming we don't go extinct before reaching it - we will know. But it's still open to useful speculation, as there might be something we still need to consider in order to avoid said extinction. The Fermi Paradox is one of the more thought-provoking signs that something might be amiss (at least in our part of the galaxy), and especially because our culture is predisposed to not take anything happening on the interstellar stage very seriously this provides an impetus for reflection that would otherwise not happen. One of the most benign (but ultimately depressing) possibilities is that biogenesis is somehow extremely unlikely. There is no reason to assume this is true, given that we know even the more complex building blocks of life are actually very prevalent throughout the universe - but it may still be statistically unlikely that cells form from them. On the footsteps of that possibility follows the hypothesis that technological intelligence is rare. Again, that's not exactly in line with what we can observe on Earth, but it might still be the case. Most of the other options should be positively troubling, though.
- ZanyProgrammer 12y ago
  "The Fermi Paradox is one of the more thought-provoking signs that something might be amiss (at least in our part of the galaxy), and especially because our culture is predisposed to not take anything happening on the interstellar stage very seriously this provides an impetus for reflection that would otherwise not happen." A hypothetical observer in North America, circa 1500, would have no idea that Asia and Europe existed. Perhaps we're not too far from some interstellar space empire, but since they use some exotic means of FTL communication, we can't detect them?
  - Udo 12y ago
    I'm not sure how your argument applies to what you cited of my post, but you are not wrong. You don't even need to consider exotic FTL communication, it could just be low-power directional radio traffic. In fact, if a full clone of Earth with exactly the same culture and technology as ours was located just a dozen light years from here, chances are we would not be able to detect that civilization. The media is always talking about our expanding radio sphere, but in reality this signal gets very weak and jumbled, very fast, with increasing distance. The means all the misinformed derps who believe aliens are coming to take our resources (a group which includes Stephen Hawking for some reason) can sleep pretty well at night knowing that we have not really advertised our existence yet.
Houshalter 12y ago
Of course we can't know for sure. The article presents a large number of hypotheses and arguments for them, most of which are fairly reasonable.

Udo 12y ago

Of course no one can now right now, it's not one of these things that can be solved by theoretical work alone. At some point - assuming we don't go extinct before reaching it - we will know. But it's still open to useful speculation, as there might be something we still need to consider in order to avoid said extinction. The Fermi Paradox is one of the more thought-provoking signs that something might be amiss (at least in our part of the galaxy), and especially because our culture is predisposed to not take anything happening on the interstellar stage very seriously this provides an impetus for reflection that would otherwise not happen. One of the most benign (but ultimately depressing) possibilities is that biogenesis is somehow extremely unlikely. There is no reason to assume this is true, given that we know even the more complex building blocks of life are actually very prevalent throughout the universe - but it may still be statistically unlikely that cells form from them. On the footsteps of that possibility follows the hypothesis that technological intelligence is rare. Again, that's not exactly in line with what we can observe on Earth, but it might still be the case. Most of the other options should be positively troubling, though.

ZanyProgrammer 12y ago
"The Fermi Paradox is one of the more thought-provoking signs that something might be amiss (at least in our part of the galaxy), and especially because our culture is predisposed to not take anything happening on the interstellar stage very seriously this provides an impetus for reflection that would otherwise not happen." A hypothetical observer in North America, circa 1500, would have no idea that Asia and Europe existed. Perhaps we're not too far from some interstellar space empire, but since they use some exotic means of FTL communication, we can't detect them?
- Udo 12y ago
  I'm not sure how your argument applies to what you cited of my post, but you are not wrong. You don't even need to consider exotic FTL communication, it could just be low-power directional radio traffic. In fact, if a full clone of Earth with exactly the same culture and technology as ours was located just a dozen light years from here, chances are we would not be able to detect that civilization. The media is always talking about our expanding radio sphere, but in reality this signal gets very weak and jumbled, very fast, with increasing distance. The means all the misinformed derps who believe aliens are coming to take our resources (a group which includes Stephen Hawking for some reason) can sleep pretty well at night knowing that we have not really advertised our existence yet.

Houshalter 12y ago

Of course we can't know for sure. The article presents a large number of hypotheses and arguments for them, most of which are fairly reasonable.