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I knocked one together for the UK, if it helps. But it is 'back of napkin'. There are all sorts of details you'd want to fill out. Here: [There were requests f
by phaemon 12y ago
I knocked one together for the UK, if it helps. But it is 'back of napkin'. There are all sorts of details you'd want to fill out. Here:
[There were requests for "back of a napkin" calculations, so I've done some for the UK. To convert to USD, just add 50%, as a rough measure.]
tl;dr - About £80 a week seems roughly achievable as a starting point.
Firstly, I'd like to say I prefer thinking of this as a "Citizen's Dividend" rather than a "Basic Income", as the latter suggests it's useless if it doesn't cover a persons cost of living. I think even a small start is better than nothing, and it can be increased up to become a Basic Income in time. I'll refer to it as BI (Basic Income) here though. So, let's see what we've got...
The UK government spends £732 billion. If we subtract £222 billion for Social Protection (we're replacing all of it with our BI), we get £510 billion required. If we add up all government income except Income Tax - Business Rates, Excise, etc - we get £481 billion.
That leaves us a shortfall of £29 billion. For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to assume that reductions in crime, the increase in VAT revenue, better health, etc are going to cover that. Let's call it close enough for government work. At the end of the day, we currently borrow £84 billion anyway, so at worst I've slashed the deficit :-)
Income Tax brings in £167 billion. UK population I'm going to take at 60 million. So, as a starting point, that gives us a BI of £2,783 annually, or £54 ($80) a week. Well, that's not a bad start! Let's consider what it means for actual people. Thus far:
Who loves me:
- Right-wingers. I've eliminated (or vastly reduced) the deficit, effectively increased the income tax allowance by £2,783 and given them this amount in cash, while reducing welfare payments to lazy, single-mother immigrants. I should be head of the Conservative party.
- Most people on Job Seekers Allowance (unemployment benefit). While I've cut the amount they actually get, I've also cut out all the paperwork, visits to the job centre, taking money off them if they happen to earn something that week, etc etc. Money without the hassle.
- Low wage workers. This is a big boost above Working Tax Credit and is hassle free (you don't lose it by earning more). It also allows some degree of security in the event of losing their job.
Who hates me:
- Left-wingers. While I've helped some low paid workers, I've also slashed benefits, there's no housing support...in short I've cut welfare while giving more money to wealthy people. I should be head of the Conservative party.
- People who're claiming several benefits. People who're on sickness benefit. Basically, all the folk who've had their income reduced below a living wage.
- Pensioners. The state pension has been cut significantly (and illegally).
Ok, I think I need to balance it a bit more. I'm going to reduce the Income Tax allowance from £10,000 (current) to £6,000. This should balance out at the end. I'm going to assume this increases income tax revenue by 25% (I've no idea if this is remotely close. If anyone can be bothered finding out, please let me know). More controversially, I'm also going to increase income tax by 25%, so the basic rate is now 25% rather than 20%.
That should give me a total revenue increase of 50% from Income Tax which gives me a BI of £4,175 annually or £80 ($120) per week.
And I think I'll leave it there. We'd need to borrow (or cut spending elsewhere) to make up other shortfalls (such as pension payments), but as long as it's less than £50 billion we still come out ahead. It might be more natural to cut the payment to £70 for everyone in order to free up some cash for other payments. In the real world, you wouldn't exclusively reserve Income Tax to one specific spending area anyway, but it makes things simple enough to get a rough measure.
- jbuzbee 12y ago"If we subtract £222 billion for Social Protection (we're replacing all of it with our BI)" I think that's a fallacy with all these calculations. You can't just disband Social Services/Protection. You'll still need to take care of the kids whose parents drink all the basic income at the local pub or blow it at the casinos. And you'll need to take care of the parents and other reckless people as well. We won't just let them starve on the streets because they spent the money on cigarettes and booze.
- phaemon 12y ago> I think that's a fallacy with all these calculations. All what calculations?! The whole point of me bothering to come up with these figures was that there were multiple comments that no-one had bothered to do even a simple sketch of what it would cost. I did. If you've got better figures, then show them. Better still, find out what the essentials are on Social Services/Protection and include them. I'd be happy to include your amendments for the next time this topic is discussed. Consider it an open source comment :)
- jbuzbee 12y agoSorry - I wasn't targeting your specific sketch. I was just trying to refute the basic idea that lots of people make when they state that we'll pay for the Basic Income program by re-allocating all the funding that is currently used for social services and use it for basic income payments. My point is that you can't do this. You'll still need a large "safety net" and associated government organization for reasons stated above and more.
- phaemon 12y agoFair enough. I suppose it doesn't take too much work to add another couple of paragraphs. What about: "Having increased the BI up to £80, I'm now going to cut it again, down to £60 a week. This is to cover pensioners, people claiming benefits which are currently in excess of £60 and support for vulnerable children (not child benefit: that's paid as BI for the child). I'm assuming that 20% of people fall into one of the above categories, so cutting £20 off the BI gives us £140 a week to help these people. This is more than the current basic state pension (£113.50/week) so that's a fairly big increase. I don't want to complicate the calculations any further, so the small number of people who require more than this will have to be paid out of the £50 billion we haven't borrowed." How's that?