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Yes, many. See e.g. The McMartin Preschool Trial. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMartin_preschool_trial http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMartin_preschool_trial >
by s_q_b 12y ago
Yes, many. See e.g. The McMartin Preschool Trial. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMartin_preschool_trial http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMartin_preschool_trial
>"By spring of 1984, it was claimed that 360 children had been abused."
All of these linked allegations later turned out to be complete fabrications, creations by the investigators invented out of whole cloth, and targeted against the same specific individuals.
In fact false accusations from multiple individuals are a common police tactic. Perhaps the individual has slept with several others, and the encounters ended non-violently but non-amicably. Suddenly consensual encounters retroactively become remembered as non-consensual after questioning by investigators, the very purpose of which is to elicit accusations. As a representative at these hearings, and student advisor, I've witnessed this happen to students many times.
See also the DSK trial, where a French author from years before brought charges that were similarly dismissed. The bandwagoning effect occurs regardless of whether the allegations are true or false. People want money, power, special treatment, and attention, and sadly, false allegations are often an easy mechanism used to get them.
So yes, both false allegations and true allegations are unlikely to be made independently. Not to mention the truly crazy people who are completely uninvolved and will jump in for no discernible reason whatsoever, or in criminal cases CIs who are transformed into additional "victims" to secure convictions.
This isn't a story of math to the rescue. It's a store of bad statistics and not paying enough attention in class, where they usually teach some variant of the prosecutor's fallacy, since this type of falsity comes up often enough to warrant consistent reinforcement that statistics aren't magic, and they can ruin people's lives.
- philwelch 12y agoWell children in specific are far easier to manipulate. As for DSK, I conceded the possibility of "one or two deranged nut jobs", which is pretty much all that happened in his case. Agreed that the statistics don't tie out.
- s_q_b 12y agoYeah, I'm debating off the top of my head. I've seen it happen enough, I'm sure there's a good exemplar case involving adults, but bandwagoning of false allegations is a very real phenomenon.
- s_q_b 12y agoIf you don't believe in the correlation of false accusations, perhaps a Bloom Filter could give us some help. Thinking through the details, but check this weekend for a github implementation. Reply or PM if interested in helping out.