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Are you sure this can be considered a "lower bound"? The amount of people who were raped and never went to the police could be much higher than the amount of p

Are you sure this can be considered a "lower bound"? The amount of people who were raped and never went to the police could be much higher than the amount of people who lied to the police about being raped.

glenra 12y ago
> Are you sure this can be considered a "lower bound"? Pretty sure. my guess is that the true number is at least 15%, based largely on the sort of accounting found here: http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/17/lies-damned-lies-and-social-media-part-5-of-%E2%88%9E/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/17/lies-damned-lies-and-so... (The lower bound is 2-10%; the upper bound is 20-40%) > The amount of people who were raped and never went to the police could be much higher than the amount of people who lied to the police about being raped. This is true, but here is a factor you are overlooking: "While rape victims have some incentives to report their cases to the police – a desire for justice, a desire for safety, the belief that the evidence will support them – false accusers have very strong incentives not to – too much work, easier revenge through other means, knowledge that the evidence is unlikely to support them, fear of getting in trouble for perjury if their deception gets out. So I consider it a very conservative estimate to say that the ratio of unreported to reported false accusations is 4:1 – the same as it is with rapes. A more realistic estimate might be as high as double or triple that."
- philwelch 12y ago
  Rape victims have many more reasons not to go to the police than to go to the police. The experience of being raped very commonly causes PTSD, and all of the steps involved in going to the police--having a rape kit done (i.e. being touched and examined in the very intimate parts that were just violated), recounting your experience, seeing the suspect--would all cause a PTSD sufferer to essentially relive the traumatic experience.
philwelch 12y ago
If anything, the police see a disproportionately high number of false accusations. A false accuser isn't deterred from the justice system by PTSD.
s_q_b 12y ago
Its a lower bound on the number of false allegations (out of allegations made to the police), so the number of people who never went to the police isn't relevant, mathematically speaking.

glenra 12y ago

> Are you sure this can be considered a "lower bound"? Pretty sure. my guess is that the true number is at least 15%, based largely on the sort of accounting found here: http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/17/lies-damned-lies-and-social-media-part-5-of-%E2%88%9E/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/17/lies-damned-lies-and-so... (The lower bound is 2-10%; the upper bound is 20-40%) > The amount of people who were raped and never went to the police could be much higher than the amount of people who lied to the police about being raped. This is true, but here is a factor you are overlooking: "While rape victims have some incentives to report their cases to the police – a desire for justice, a desire for safety, the belief that the evidence will support them – false accusers have very strong incentives not to – too much work, easier revenge through other means, knowledge that the evidence is unlikely to support them, fear of getting in trouble for perjury if their deception gets out. So I consider it a very conservative estimate to say that the ratio of unreported to reported false accusations is 4:1 – the same as it is with rapes. A more realistic estimate might be as high as double or triple that."

philwelch 12y ago
Rape victims have many more reasons not to go to the police than to go to the police. The experience of being raped very commonly causes PTSD, and all of the steps involved in going to the police--having a rape kit done (i.e. being touched and examined in the very intimate parts that were just violated), recounting your experience, seeing the suspect--would all cause a PTSD sufferer to essentially relive the traumatic experience.

philwelch 12y ago

If anything, the police see a disproportionately high number of false accusations. A false accuser isn't deterred from the justice system by PTSD.

s_q_b 12y ago

Its a lower bound on the number of false allegations (out of allegations made to the police), so the number of people who never went to the police isn't relevant, mathematically speaking.