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I think denials of state actor hacking is bewildering. Its seem more credulous that a previously unknown hacker group (the GOP? Really?) suddenly take down Son

I think denials of state actor hacking is bewildering. Its seem more credulous that a previously unknown hacker group (the GOP? Really?) suddenly take down Sony in such an elaborate fashion, especially when a movie literally protraying the murder of NKorea's leader is about to be released (In June N Korea vowed to "mercilessly destroy" anyone involved with The Interview.) Groups like the Lizard Squad who perform Sony attacks tend to have a history and reputation. This group has no history. That itself should be a huge mark against those who go against the FBI's claim. Not to mention we have a massive history of NK and Chinese cyberwars against the west. Often both countries working hand in hand, with the NK hacker team reported to be headquartered in a hotel in a Chinese city under the auspices of the Chinese government. Shenzhen I believe. I think a lot of this "debate" is centered on how people feel about the USG and specifically its foreign policy. I think a lot of black-hat and grey-hats tend to idealize autocratic regimes like Russia, China, N Korea, Syria, Iran, etc because they are "counters" to US foreign policy, so they often will take an anti-US spin on things. This isn't technology or informed commentary. Its just the same lazy outrage politics that has taken over any other type of discourse on the internet. From a rational perspective, this attack obviously points to the NK regime. Its fits their MO, their history, and, if we take the FBI's claims as true, their technology and capabilities. The same way many anti-US/anti-Western commentators were telling us that those weren't Putin's troops in Crimea or in Eastern Ukraine. They kept saying "more proof" when it was obvious no amount of proof would convince them. They just had an anti-US bone to pick and liked the attention of being contrarian. I also think its emotionally comforting to pretend there isn't a massive multi-party cyberwar going on, all the time. I think people want to believe its just some bad apples, not nation states and their leadership ordering attacks left and right, with impunity. Its a little scary to think what is possible from a determined attacker and how little of our industry and practices are focused on security.

higherpurpose 12y ago
Have you missed the Lulzsec series of hacks against Sony? Lulz It's not like they hacked Google here. Sony probably had lower security standards than your average start-up company. And their first request was a money reward, not to stop the movie from being published. Also the US gov and its intelligence agencies have earned their share of distrust here. I would be more worried if HN as a whole would automatically trust the US intelligence agencies after all of their lies from the past two years. The US agencies are like the boy that cried wolf. If they want us to trust them when something actually happened, then they should stop lying all the other times, too. All actions have consequences, but the US gov has acted way too many times as if they do not. The recent execution of the two cops is also a consequence of the US gov acting lawlessly and saving their murderous cops from prosecution. I have no doubt the person that did it had mental issues, but I don't think he would've gone and executed two cops without the murderous cops being saved from justice by the US government (two times too many).
tomp 12y ago
Weapons of mass destruction, Syrian rebels, CIA torture, Snowden is a traitor, the Wikileaks suppression, ... I think that it's not entirely irrational to believe the opposite of whatever USG says about foreign policy.
- balabaster 12y ago
  I would second this. I think everyone wants to believe that the U.S. Government is trustworthy and that they stand for what is morally right... but the definition of madness is to continue doing the same thing and expecting different results. Too much has gone on in recent history that shows the Government is not trustworthy. You can't expect to keep being caught betraying the trust of your countrymen and expect them to continue trusting what you have to say. Whether this is North Korea or not, the fact is, the only information appearing to confirm that has thus far appeared to come from or have perhaps been coerced by the Government... given the Government has proven themselves time and again not to be trusted, what are we supposed to believe? Is it North Korea? Is the evidence credible? Has it been fabricated? What are we supposed to think?
- mikeash 12y ago
  What about the many correct statements they've made over the years? Sometimes they lie. Sometimes they're innocently wrong. Sometimes they're right. It is irrational to knee-jerk believe the opposite of what they say just because they're sometimes lying or wrong. If you don't trust them, fine. I don't trust them either. But that means that you should evaluate for yourself, not simply believe the opposite of what they say.
  - tomp 12y ago
    It's not the local Scientology Society, it's the USG, the most powerful and lethal organization on Earth. They might usually be "innocently wrong", but sometimes they're wrong and thousands of people die. I'm aiming at those occasions. Same reason I oppose death penalty, you never know if the person is really guilty, so you shouldn't kill them, just to be safe.
  - lotsofmangos 12y ago
xnull2guest 12y ago
I argued here that it may be NK: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8765292 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8765292 But I don't think I can agree with your comment. Whether the group in question is new or has a new moniker I don't think says anything about whether NK was behind this. Because of the strange evolution of the case (first demanding ransom) it's pretty clear that the identities of the hackers have looked to be different groups with different goals. There is either collusion or there is a false flag: A.) #GOP is a false flag operation for NK state controlled or sponsored attacks (this has been done before by other states - e.g. SEA) B.) NK is a false flag used by #GOP for lulz or to confuse law enforcement/forensics (this has been done before by other hackers - e.g. Gary McKinnon) C.) There is a real group #GOP active in the East (why we haven't heard of them) who either hacked Sony in isolation and then got NK support or was encouraged but not propositioned by NK to perform the compromise in the first place My bets are currently on C, as the objective of the hack changed a week after ransom was not provided and because from what I can tell the tools that are purported to be state sponsored only appeared some time after the initial compromise and along with the change in demands. Many good questions are raised by critics of the FBI's published evidence. That isn't outrage politics. I don't think that "from a rational perspective... obviously points to NK" - and I think you would have a lot of difficulty defending the case that you are the one with the access to the 'rational perspective'. (It's sophistry to speak in terms of authority like that, without providing an argument that stands on its own...) Re: troops in Crimea. It most certainly was some of Putin's troops in support of East Ukrainian separatists. What isn't seen is the 'pro-West' (?) side admitting to the equivalent - NATO troops and supplies supporting West Ukrainian separatists. Or the conversation include the discussions about the European presence at the protests and riots, the aggressive financial deal that the EU knew could/would split the country, EU membership offer, and leaked audio plans to 'select' a pro-West Ukrainian presidential candidate. Russia isn't innocent and neither is the West. Neither is China for that matter. (This is realpolitik, we don't have the luxury of innocence.) I'm glad you mention the fact that there is a global cyberwar. The types of operations seen in the global cyberwar thus far are for the most part very different from the kind we saw at SONY. Some of the stuff SEA did was similar in kind, but didn't see as much blatant destruction. I've read several global cyberpolicy recommendations and all of them recommend against the type of vicious and overtly destructive activity demonstrated by the SONY hacks (all of the papers I have read are about US cyberpolicy).
srj 12y ago
You take a group of critical thinkers and expose them to a topic that many are experts in and they'll focus principally on fact rather than opinion. At the moment the released facts don't necessarily report the widely reported conclusion. It's of course possible that more compelling evidence exists but hasn't been disclosed. At that point it's a "just trust us" sort of argument though and I don't find it too surprising that the situation invites skepticism.
- balabaster 12y ago
  The government has worn out goodwill for "just trust us." If you want the ability to be able to use the "just trust us" card, you have to prove yourself trustworthy and with the amount that's coming to light recently about the level of deceit within their ranks, that card has gone. They now need to have full disclosure to win back that goodwill. They can't have their cake and eat it too.

higherpurpose 12y ago

Have you missed the Lulzsec series of hacks against Sony? Lulz It's not like they hacked Google here. Sony probably had lower security standards than your average start-up company. And their first request was a money reward, not to stop the movie from being published. Also the US gov and its intelligence agencies have earned their share of distrust here. I would be more worried if HN as a whole would automatically trust the US intelligence agencies after all of their lies from the past two years. The US agencies are like the boy that cried wolf. If they want us to trust them when something actually happened, then they should stop lying all the other times, too. All actions have consequences, but the US gov has acted way too many times as if they do not. The recent execution of the two cops is also a consequence of the US gov acting lawlessly and saving their murderous cops from prosecution. I have no doubt the person that did it had mental issues, but I don't think he would've gone and executed two cops without the murderous cops being saved from justice by the US government (two times too many).

tomp 12y ago

Weapons of mass destruction, Syrian rebels, CIA torture, Snowden is a traitor, the Wikileaks suppression, ... I think that it's not entirely irrational to believe the opposite of whatever USG says about foreign policy.

balabaster 12y ago
I would second this. I think everyone wants to believe that the U.S. Government is trustworthy and that they stand for what is morally right... but the definition of madness is to continue doing the same thing and expecting different results. Too much has gone on in recent history that shows the Government is not trustworthy. You can't expect to keep being caught betraying the trust of your countrymen and expect them to continue trusting what you have to say. Whether this is North Korea or not, the fact is, the only information appearing to confirm that has thus far appeared to come from or have perhaps been coerced by the Government... given the Government has proven themselves time and again not to be trusted, what are we supposed to believe? Is it North Korea? Is the evidence credible? Has it been fabricated? What are we supposed to think?
mikeash 12y ago
What about the many correct statements they've made over the years? Sometimes they lie. Sometimes they're innocently wrong. Sometimes they're right. It is irrational to knee-jerk believe the opposite of what they say just because they're sometimes lying or wrong. If you don't trust them, fine. I don't trust them either. But that means that you should evaluate for yourself, not simply believe the opposite of what they say.
- tomp 12y ago
  It's not the local Scientology Society, it's the USG, the most powerful and lethal organization on Earth. They might usually be "innocently wrong", but sometimes they're wrong and thousands of people die. I'm aiming at those occasions. Same reason I oppose death penalty, you never know if the person is really guilty, so you shouldn't kill them, just to be safe.
- lotsofmangos 12y ago

xnull2guest 12y ago

I argued here that it may be NK: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8765292 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8765292 But I don't think I can agree with your comment. Whether the group in question is new or has a new moniker I don't think says anything about whether NK was behind this. Because of the strange evolution of the case (first demanding ransom) it's pretty clear that the identities of the hackers have looked to be different groups with different goals. There is either collusion or there is a false flag: A.) #GOP is a false flag operation for NK state controlled or sponsored attacks (this has been done before by other states - e.g. SEA) B.) NK is a false flag used by #GOP for lulz or to confuse law enforcement/forensics (this has been done before by other hackers - e.g. Gary McKinnon) C.) There is a real group #GOP active in the East (why we haven't heard of them) who either hacked Sony in isolation and then got NK support or was encouraged but not propositioned by NK to perform the compromise in the first place My bets are currently on C, as the objective of the hack changed a week after ransom was not provided and because from what I can tell the tools that are purported to be state sponsored only appeared some time after the initial compromise and along with the change in demands. Many good questions are raised by critics of the FBI's published evidence. That isn't outrage politics. I don't think that "from a rational perspective... obviously points to NK" - and I think you would have a lot of difficulty defending the case that you are the one with the access to the 'rational perspective'. (It's sophistry to speak in terms of authority like that, without providing an argument that stands on its own...) Re: troops in Crimea. It most certainly was some of Putin's troops in support of East Ukrainian separatists. What isn't seen is the 'pro-West' (?) side admitting to the equivalent - NATO troops and supplies supporting West Ukrainian separatists. Or the conversation include the discussions about the European presence at the protests and riots, the aggressive financial deal that the EU knew could/would split the country, EU membership offer, and leaked audio plans to 'select' a pro-West Ukrainian presidential candidate. Russia isn't innocent and neither is the West. Neither is China for that matter. (This is realpolitik, we don't have the luxury of innocence.) I'm glad you mention the fact that there is a global cyberwar. The types of operations seen in the global cyberwar thus far are for the most part very different from the kind we saw at SONY. Some of the stuff SEA did was similar in kind, but didn't see as much blatant destruction. I've read several global cyberpolicy recommendations and all of them recommend against the type of vicious and overtly destructive activity demonstrated by the SONY hacks (all of the papers I have read are about US cyberpolicy).

srj 12y ago

You take a group of critical thinkers and expose them to a topic that many are experts in and they'll focus principally on fact rather than opinion. At the moment the released facts don't necessarily report the widely reported conclusion. It's of course possible that more compelling evidence exists but hasn't been disclosed. At that point it's a "just trust us" sort of argument though and I don't find it too surprising that the situation invites skepticism.

balabaster 12y ago
The government has worn out goodwill for "just trust us." If you want the ability to be able to use the "just trust us" card, you have to prove yourself trustworthy and with the amount that's coming to light recently about the level of deceit within their ranks, that card has gone. They now need to have full disclosure to win back that goodwill. They can't have their cake and eat it too.