3 ms·
Updating one's beliefs to get more accurate priors is something we should all strive to do. There is no such thing as having two beliefs of equal weight that co
by evanwarfel 12y ago
Updating one's beliefs to get more accurate priors is something we should all strive to do. There is no such thing as having two beliefs of equal weight that contradict each other - that's an illusion created by either applying a different definitions to each belief, or a refusal to admit that you believe one more than the other.
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> "The winds of change originate in the unconscious minds of domain experts."
I would also add that domain expertise is when one's internal model / map matches the territory. When this happens, one's intuition is accurate and one can notice patterns that other people can't, or one can make predictions that turn out to be right.
- unclebucknasty 12y agoI wonder if a lack of domain "expertise", but a general understanding of the domain instead, can sometimes be an advantage in generating domain-changing ideas.
- kevan 12y agoThere's definitely a risk as a domain expert that you'll take things for granted. Henry Ford is a good example of this, he was never an expert in horse-drawn carriages but he changed that domain drastically.
- eli_gottlieb 12y ago>There is no such thing as having two beliefs of equal weight that contradict each other - that's an illusion created by either applying a different definitions to each belief, or a refusal to admit that you believe one more than the other. Of course there is: P(A) = 0.5 and P(~A) = 0.5. Don't be silly.
- lyricalpolymath 12y ago> "There is no such thing as having two beliefs of equal weight that contradict each other" Of course there is and the situation in which you find it is called Cognitive Dissonance [1] [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance