3 ms·
This is really cool. Nice job. I'm wondering at which week does your simulation become usable? I've work on this problem as a side project before but with th
by mjbellantoni 12y ago
This is really cool. Nice job.
I'm wondering at which week does your simulation become usable?
I've work on this problem as a side project before but with the goal of being able to make this kind of prediction from Week 1. I would be able to compute various probabilities about who would win Divisions, but figuring out anything outside of a division would become computationally prohibitive. In my attempt I used a probability distribution based on historical performance of the home team instead of giving each team an equal chance of winning.
Anyway, looking forward to seeing your code!
- Tsggdjbs 12y agoSince they use a coin flip to determine who wins each game, running the simulation on week 1 would give each team an equal chance of making the playoffs. Actually it would be interesting to know if the NFL rules / schedule give some teams advantages from the start.
- twoodfin 12y agoIf games are a coin flip, I believe the answer to your question is "no". Every team plays exactly 6 division games, 6 conference games, and 4 non-conference games. Those are the only non-points-scored, non-coin-toss variables in the playoff algorithm, so if no one has played a game yet, every team is identical.