5 ms·
This is really cool, but using coin flips really colors the answers. For example, if you pick the Broncos to win out, then it says they have a 75% chance of bei
by jhugg 12y ago
This is really cool, but using coin flips really colors the answers. For example, if you pick the Broncos to win out, then it says they have a 75% chance of being the #1 AFC seed. 75% is obviously the chance Patriots will lose one or both of their last games if the outcome is random, but that’s extremely misleading; the Patriots might lose, but they will be heavy favorites in both games.
Having an option to predict based on Elo ratings would be nice, but even using existing records to predict game outcomes would be a much better simulator. Additionally, betting spreads are available for many games too.
I get why this is hard, but it would be a fun addition to have a setting to change how the likelyhood of an outcome is computed.
- mbostock 12y agoAgreed. It’s more of a what-if machine than an attempt to make the most accurate prediction. Incorporating Elo ratings into the simulator is actually easy: the difference between the two ratings tells you the probability of one team winning. We may do this in the future, but at least for now we opted for a simpler model whose main goal is to let you explore what’s possible. For example, if you pick an outcome on one game that goes greatly against the ratings (e.g., the Seahawks lose to the Rams), maybe you have some reason to disagree with the ratings and you don’t want them to influence the simulated outcomes of other games.
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]