3 ms·
Be really really really careful about how you place your bets. I think it's dangerous to bet against an entire sector. "Tech" companies are so varied. Back in
by PhantomGremlin 12y ago
Be really really really careful about how you place your bets. I think it's dangerous to bet against an entire sector. "Tech" companies are so varied.
Back in 2000 a previous bubble burst. AKA the "dotcom crash". It had lots of companies that were truly absurd. E.g. pets.com thought it could become profitable by offering free shipping on heavy bags of dogfood.[1]
Now we still have absurd valuations. E.g. Mark Zuckerberg saw nothing wrong with spending $19 billion of his shareholders' money on WhatsApp, a company that had IIRC somewhere around $30 million in revenue. However, there's a big difference. The rest of Facebook is quite profitable. It might be somewhat overvalued, but it's a real company. It might eventually go the way of MySpace, but I wouldn't bet against Facebook right now.
There's a very important saying on Wall Street:
never short a company based
(solely) on valuation
Okay, you specifically said you didn't want to "short". So let's just rephrase it:
Don't bet against a successful,
growing company solely because
you think it's overvalued.
Try to find companies that are on the way down. E.g.: Are their revenues falling? Is their core business model threatened? Are there strong up-and-coming competitors? Do they have a moron for a CEO? Are they an outright fraud?
I agree with your general opinion. I think there's a lot of froth in some current tech company valuations. I think the "bubble" will burst one of these days. But right now I'm not betting any of my money on the "tech bubble burst" I see coming. Because there's yet another very important saying on Wall Street, attributed to John Maynard Keynes:[2]
Markets can stay irrational
longer than you can stay solvent
Good luck!
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pets.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pets.com
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis