4 ms·

Autism link to air pollution raised

15 points by Libertatea 12y ago

onion2k 12y ago
Are the rates of autism occurrences falling in the US and Europe? With the huge reduction in the number of people smoking, the end of leaded petrol, requirements for catalytic converters in cars, and most of the manufacturing industry being exported to the far east, presumably particulate pollution is far lower than was during the post-WWII years. If this research is correct there should be a corresponding drop in the numbers of autistic children.
- jamesaguilar 12y ago
  I would like to propose a new hypothesis. Autism rates are linked to the incidence of people non-ironically drinking fruit juices to cleanse themselves of "toxins."
- corin_ 12y ago
  A correlation would certainly help back up their suggestion (but not prove), but lack of one wouldn't necessarily mean they were wrong as it would be impossible to control against other possible factors.
- RickS 12y ago
  Unfortunately, I don't think there are historical numbers on Autism diagnoses that fit with our current understandings. The widespread recognition and frequent diagnoses of autism is a relatively recent phenomenon. In other words, even if rate of incidence is declining, rate of diagnoses has sharply risen in recent decades, complicating the data.
- saalaa 12y ago
  The keywords is "presumably". There should only be a drop if your hypothesis is correct which given population growth, car ownership trends and overall economic growth is doubtful.
  - ern 12y ago
    The keywords is "presumably". There should only be a drop if your hypothesis is correct which given population growth, car ownership trends and overall economic growth is doubtful. I think it's safe to say, that, in the West, air pollution has dropped dramatically: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog
- jrs99 12y ago
  maybe. i'd also be interested in population growth and migration into urban areas.
- ern 12y ago
  That's good point, because the rate is, of course, escalating. It is interesting that these sorts of articles ("BPA exposure associated with 7 point IQ decrease" was a recent one on the HN front page) seem to gloss over the fact that when these exposures were higher, the Flynn Effect continued unabated. Lead is another substance that, although nasty, is blamed for IQ declines, yet, when lead levels were highest, average IQs continued to rise. Now that lead levels are plumbing new lows, is there evidence that those "lost" IQ points have been gained by younger generations? If BPA is banned, I am sure that there will be scant evidence of those 7 IQ points coming back in a generation or 2 (if anyone bothers looking). Your point about inter-generational autism rates is similar. I'm not an expert, but I can't take these sorts of environmental toxicity studies seriously anymore.
- Spooky23 12y ago
  I don't think that you can accurately measure this, because we didn't have a concept of "autism spectrum disorder" until recently. I doubt you'd be comparing apples to oranges over a long timeline. Actually, I don't think it's a slam dunk that we have more autism today, or more diagnoses.
- pervycreeper 12y ago
  >If this research is correct there should be a corresponding drop in the numbers of autistic children. That's not correct, this research says nothing about other factors that could affect the rate of occurrence of autism.
Beltiras 12y ago
http://www.epa.gov/air/airpolldata.html http://www.epa.gov/air/airpolldata.html There are probably more APIs out there. Autism numbers by location should be known. Simple correlation could go a long way to check the consistency of the hypothesis. EDIT: The autism data needed would be age of diagnosis, to map it to the proper air quality metric.
dschiptsov 12y ago
Yet another example of meme-science. Only idiots would try to explain a complex, subtle phenomena to a single environmental factor.
- hcarvalhoalves 12y ago
  "There is a large inherited component to autism, but lead researcher Dr Marc Weisskopf said there was mounting evidence that air pollution may play a role too."
  - dschiptsov 12y ago
    The way of thinking about Autism should be like the way we think about human language. Yes, the ability to speak, or rather our abilities to acquire and learn a language are, of course, inherited, but when there is no one to speak to a child, or a child refused or unable to participate, or there are other obstacles in the environment, after passing a certain age he will never speak at all. It seems that autism has the same pattern. It has genetic aspect and environmental aspect and one of personal experience and amount of practice, so no one could identify all the factors, leave alone find a "single cause". Of course, it is genes, for, say 80% (which is rather a flawed mental construct), like it is in everything else - height or IQ, for example (why should it be different?), but the rest 20% are, of course, not mere "air pollution". It is the same meme-nonsense (with which we're bombarded daily by mainstream media) as to say, "look, children in a toxic environments have worse grades and misbehave more". OK, perhaps they are, but this is an "empty message", a "meme" based on a naive common-sense. Correlation does not imply causation, and even if this factor is a "valid" one, its actual implication is infinitesimally small - it, perhaps, contributes to "stress" or states related to "depression" (which is another meme). Most of these meme-studies are just misuse of statistical tools together with a confirmation and self-serving biases. People construct statistical "evidences" for their own flawed constructs, instead of methodically removing everything "mental" and see what remains.
- dang 12y ago
  Let's apply the Principle of Charity here. Perhaps the researchers are idiots, far below the average education and intelligence of, say, Hacker News users. But perhaps they're as familiar with such notions as "complex phenomenon" and "environmental factor" as we are. We should choose the more charitable interpretation, not because there aren't idiots out there, but because doing so leads to more interesting discussion in the long run—and usually in the short run too. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_charity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_charity
anonomist 12y ago
This looks like nothing more than spurious correlation. Even if rates of autism and levels of air pollution are found to be correlated, we cannot infer that they are causally related. Another factor correlated with air pollution could actually be causally linked with autism.

15 points by Libertatea 12y ago

Are the rates of autism occurrences falling in the US and Europe? With the huge reduction in the number of people smoking, the end of leaded petrol, requirements for catalytic converters in cars, and most of the manufacturing industry being exported to the far east, presumably particulate pollution is far lower than was during the post-WWII years. If this research is correct there should be a corresponding drop in the numbers of autistic children.

jamesaguilar 12y ago
I would like to propose a new hypothesis. Autism rates are linked to the incidence of people non-ironically drinking fruit juices to cleanse themselves of "toxins."
corin_ 12y ago
A correlation would certainly help back up their suggestion (but not prove), but lack of one wouldn't necessarily mean they were wrong as it would be impossible to control against other possible factors.
RickS 12y ago
Unfortunately, I don't think there are historical numbers on Autism diagnoses that fit with our current understandings. The widespread recognition and frequent diagnoses of autism is a relatively recent phenomenon. In other words, even if rate of incidence is declining, rate of diagnoses has sharply risen in recent decades, complicating the data.
saalaa 12y ago
The keywords is "presumably". There should only be a drop if your hypothesis is correct which given population growth, car ownership trends and overall economic growth is doubtful.
- ern 12y ago
  The keywords is "presumably". There should only be a drop if your hypothesis is correct which given population growth, car ownership trends and overall economic growth is doubtful. I think it's safe to say, that, in the West, air pollution has dropped dramatically: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog
jrs99 12y ago
maybe. i'd also be interested in population growth and migration into urban areas.
ern 12y ago
That's good point, because the rate is, of course, escalating. It is interesting that these sorts of articles ("BPA exposure associated with 7 point IQ decrease" was a recent one on the HN front page) seem to gloss over the fact that when these exposures were higher, the Flynn Effect continued unabated. Lead is another substance that, although nasty, is blamed for IQ declines, yet, when lead levels were highest, average IQs continued to rise. Now that lead levels are plumbing new lows, is there evidence that those "lost" IQ points have been gained by younger generations? If BPA is banned, I am sure that there will be scant evidence of those 7 IQ points coming back in a generation or 2 (if anyone bothers looking). Your point about inter-generational autism rates is similar. I'm not an expert, but I can't take these sorts of environmental toxicity studies seriously anymore.
Spooky23 12y ago
I don't think that you can accurately measure this, because we didn't have a concept of "autism spectrum disorder" until recently. I doubt you'd be comparing apples to oranges over a long timeline. Actually, I don't think it's a slam dunk that we have more autism today, or more diagnoses.
pervycreeper 12y ago
>If this research is correct there should be a corresponding drop in the numbers of autistic children. That's not correct, this research says nothing about other factors that could affect the rate of occurrence of autism.

Beltiras 12y ago

http://www.epa.gov/air/airpolldata.html http://www.epa.gov/air/airpolldata.html There are probably more APIs out there. Autism numbers by location should be known. Simple correlation could go a long way to check the consistency of the hypothesis. EDIT: The autism data needed would be age of diagnosis, to map it to the proper air quality metric.

dschiptsov 12y ago

Yet another example of meme-science. Only idiots would try to explain a complex, subtle phenomena to a single environmental factor.

hcarvalhoalves 12y ago
"There is a large inherited component to autism, but lead researcher Dr Marc Weisskopf said there was mounting evidence that air pollution may play a role too."
- dschiptsov 12y ago
  The way of thinking about Autism should be like the way we think about human language. Yes, the ability to speak, or rather our abilities to acquire and learn a language are, of course, inherited, but when there is no one to speak to a child, or a child refused or unable to participate, or there are other obstacles in the environment, after passing a certain age he will never speak at all. It seems that autism has the same pattern. It has genetic aspect and environmental aspect and one of personal experience and amount of practice, so no one could identify all the factors, leave alone find a "single cause". Of course, it is genes, for, say 80% (which is rather a flawed mental construct), like it is in everything else - height or IQ, for example (why should it be different?), but the rest 20% are, of course, not mere "air pollution". It is the same meme-nonsense (with which we're bombarded daily by mainstream media) as to say, "look, children in a toxic environments have worse grades and misbehave more". OK, perhaps they are, but this is an "empty message", a "meme" based on a naive common-sense. Correlation does not imply causation, and even if this factor is a "valid" one, its actual implication is infinitesimally small - it, perhaps, contributes to "stress" or states related to "depression" (which is another meme). Most of these meme-studies are just misuse of statistical tools together with a confirmation and self-serving biases. People construct statistical "evidences" for their own flawed constructs, instead of methodically removing everything "mental" and see what remains.
dang 12y ago
Let's apply the Principle of Charity here. Perhaps the researchers are idiots, far below the average education and intelligence of, say, Hacker News users. But perhaps they're as familiar with such notions as "complex phenomenon" and "environmental factor" as we are. We should choose the more charitable interpretation, not because there aren't idiots out there, but because doing so leads to more interesting discussion in the long run—and usually in the short run too. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_charity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_charity

anonomist 12y ago

This looks like nothing more than spurious correlation. Even if rates of autism and levels of air pollution are found to be correlated, we cannot infer that they are causally related. Another factor correlated with air pollution could actually be causally linked with autism.