2 ms·
>>However, there is an age old equation that works fairly well for attribution: opportunity + motive + evidence. IMHO, SONY & USgov have more of the first 2 th
by smtddr 12y ago
>>However, there is an age old equation that works fairly well for attribution: opportunity + motive + evidence.
IMHO, SONY & USgov have more of the first 2 than N.K. and the 3rd can just be made up.
- xnull2guest 12y agoI agree that if you think Sony and the US government have more motive, this changes attribution (and in fact I mentioned it wrt "ulterior motive"). I'm curious about what motives you think Sony and USG have. I'm not sure what to make about the opportunity cost analysis indicting Sony or the USG - maybe you could say more about that too?
- smtddr 12y agoSONY might think the movie was going to bomb anyway(I don't understand why anyone would want to watch this on xmas) and this hacking incident is probably going to cost them millions as well. Turning this likely-to-fail movie + hacking disaster into a promotional catapult generating big profits would be one option. Even I want to watch this movie now, but not on xmas. USgov., I think they will take any chance given to them to put China, Russia and N.K. in a bad light.
- xnull2guest 12y agoI'm not sure what I think about the motive of Sony to turn the hacking into a promotional event or how the USG motive you suggest squares with what they've said over the past week (they have been careful not to attribute until just recently, even in spite of rumors of NK fault). The big question your analysis seems to beg is why #GOP would demand that the movie not be shown. In the scenario where Sony and the USG want to spin this as anti-NK propaganda (certainly this is not out of the USG playbook), why would #GOP play along? I don't understand #GOP's motive in your scenario.
- smtddr 12y agoAll this is pure speculation on my part of course, but I think the #GOP are just talented people doing it for the lulz. Note that the media mentioned North Korea first, possibly giving #GOP the idea to increase the lulz to levels previously unimagined. Bonus points - It diverts attention from the real hackers; making them less likely to be caught.
- xnull2guest 12y agoFinally, what do you think of #GOP coming from some of the same IPs used in prior attacks known to have been state sponsored? You must think that they bought access to these machines on the same forums they bought Korean malware?
- smtddr 12y agoThat's the manufactured evidence I suspect is happening.
- xnull2guest 12y agoOkay, so you think that this is is a manufactured lie. I understand your position now - it seems consistent to me. I'm not sure that I personally buy that the evidence is manufactured - that there is motivation enough from the USG to invent that evidence. But this is where there is reached an impasse. There just isn't enough information at this point to really say. Either speculation can be right. It'll be interesting to watch as this continues.
- hencq 12y agoCompletely agree. I know the regime in North Korea is crazy, but I really don't see them caring about this at all. On the other hand, they're often the butt of jokes in the west. Just look at all the "you've been banned from r/pyongyang jokes on reddit. Or 'The Interview' itself, which based on the trailer, seems to be laughing at the same stereotypes. I think a bunch of hackers that frequent 4chan have a lot more motive to continue this whole joke than North Korea itself.
- desdiv 12y agoNorth Korea threatens to nuke US, as well as half a dozen other countries, on a regular basis. There's no need for false flag operations against North Korea; they're already doing everything they can to paint themselves in a bad light.