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> Can anyone track and connect the dots from fed bond buying to increase in Facebook share price? Sure. Government bonds are defined as risk-free, for better
by RickHull 12y ago
> Can anyone track and connect the dots from fed bond buying to increase in Facebook share price?
Sure. Government bonds are defined as risk-free, for better or worse. Regulatory and capital requirements ensure healthy demand for risk-free securities, aside from any "natural" demand for government bonds.
The Fed has pushed down the yields on USG bonds to miniscule levels. Firms which used to rely on a healthy yield for such bonds now have to find that yield elsewhere. The entire point, depending on who you ask, of the Fed's activities is to push investors into riskier securities.
Institutional investors forced into searching for yield bid up Facebooks and Amazons. Simultaneously, you have the more adventurous being pushed into various forms of VC investing. Some investors are desperate for yield, like underwater pension funds, and they won't get it from USG bonds. Think about the recent news regarding pension funds getting into bed with hedge funds. Other investors are sitting on huge cash balances and simply want to put them to work. There is a lot more money sloshing around the system compared to 7 years ago, some of it merely implied by gigantic reserve balances with the Fed, and is there really any question that the run-up in asset prices over the last 5 years is an effect?
- marktangotango 12y agoMy thoughts exactly, are there any rebuttals to this analysis?