6 ms·

$1200 to $350 and almost certainly back to $1200 at some point. Compare that with a government issuing a new currency and rendering the previous one invalid.

by staunch 12y ago

sillysaurus3 12y ago
$1200 to $350 and almost certainly back to $1200 at some point. You can't afford think that way. I did, and it took me a long time to realize that I was being insane while I was doing it. Unless you're planning for a timescale measured in "decades," you're setting yourself up to get burned. Out of all the persuasive arguments I could make, consider this: There are better ways to double your money than bitcoin. Within the next decade, you probably won't see something like the leap from $6 to $600 again. I'll be happy to eat my words about that. Personally, I don't see how you'd even get to 10x your investment. $350 to $1200 would be 3.4x ROI. And while that's a good return, there are other ways to grow a nest egg from $20k to $68k without gambling it. And if we can't publicly admit that bitcoin is essentially gambling, not investing, then we should at least admit that to ourselves. EDIT: One point I'd like to underscore is that the price of bitcoin is mostly determined by the major holders. If any of them lose faith and pull out, that will trigger others to pull out. Also, they have a lovely tendency to dump a lot of money into the market, which jumps the price, which causes other people to pour money in. Then the major player sells, capturing all of that money that everyone else poured in. You see? It's a predatory game, and you don't have to take my word for it. Examine the graphs and you'll see "jump-sells" like that over and over again.
- waterlesscloud 12y ago
  The timeframe for Bitcoin returning to $1200 is certainly not 'decades'. If it hasn't done so in a few years, it's never going to. It's going to die.
- polarix 12y ago
  > there are other ways to grow a nest egg from $20k to $68k without gambling it If you mean to do so quickly, and without taking some significant risk, I'll call.
  - sillysaurus3 12y ago
    No, not quickly. But quickly is how you lose it. If you don't care what happens to that $20k, then do anything you want with it. But if you do, the EV on bitcoin is probably worse than, say, learning to play poker semi-professionally.
crusso 12y ago
$1200 to $350 and almost certainly back to $1200 at some point I lost a significant amount of money thinking that way during the .com bubble collapse.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- zanny 12y ago
  Well if you bought Google or Amazon in 1998 and rode that out you would be sitting pretty right now!
  - tcskeptic 12y ago
    Google didn't go public until 2004.
kansface 12y ago
Why is the price guaranteed to increase forever (or at least until it reaches 1200)?
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- jasonisalive 12y ago
  Eventually when no one will accept fiat currencies anymore it will be worth infinite [pick your fiat currency]
  - vectorpush 12y ago
    I hope that's a joke, because it doesn't seem like a very reasonable expectation.
    - jasonisalive 12y ago
      It seems utterly reasonable to me. What could be more reasonable than wanting your medium of exchange to be out of the control of incompetent, corruptible governments? What could be more reasonable than wanting your medium of exchange to be based upon open-source, community-edited code, that anyone can review, contribute to, and build on top of? What could be more reasonable than wanting your medium of exchange to be available to anyone, anywhere, anytime, regardless of political orientation, without asking anyone's permission? Sorry but fiat currencies possess no advantages other than incumbent localised network effects. The world needs a true global currency and Bitcoin is it.
      - tonysuper 12y ago
        Until somebody invents a quantum computer with a sufficiently large number of Qbits. Then they can completely destroy the blockchain. Alternatively, wait a few hundred years until you need several hundred terabytes to store the blockchain, which is required for transactions. That's going to be a problem. Or you could switch to Bitcoin before realizing that currencies which deflate in value are a terrible idea. (For the record, I support cryptocurrency. I just think Bitcoin has too many issues to be viable long-term. Nice proof of concept, but it needs to be refined).
seanflyon 12y ago
Why would that be certain? The only reason Bitcoin is more valuable than the seanflyonCoin that I just invented is that people trust it. If people stopped trusting Bitcoin its value would go to near 0 and stay there.

$1200 to $350 and almost certainly back to $1200 at some point. Compare that with a government issuing a new currency and rendering the previous one invalid.

by staunch 12y ago

$1200 to $350 and almost certainly back to $1200 at some point. Compare that with a government issuing a new currency and rendering the previous one invalid.

sillysaurus3 12y ago

$1200 to $350 and almost certainly back to $1200 at some point. You can't afford think that way. I did, and it took me a long time to realize that I was being insane while I was doing it. Unless you're planning for a timescale measured in "decades," you're setting yourself up to get burned. Out of all the persuasive arguments I could make, consider this: There are better ways to double your money than bitcoin. Within the next decade, you probably won't see something like the leap from $6 to $600 again. I'll be happy to eat my words about that. Personally, I don't see how you'd even get to 10x your investment. $350 to $1200 would be 3.4x ROI. And while that's a good return, there are other ways to grow a nest egg from $20k to $68k without gambling it. And if we can't publicly admit that bitcoin is essentially gambling, not investing, then we should at least admit that to ourselves. EDIT: One point I'd like to underscore is that the price of bitcoin is mostly determined by the major holders. If any of them lose faith and pull out, that will trigger others to pull out. Also, they have a lovely tendency to dump a lot of money into the market, which jumps the price, which causes other people to pour money in. Then the major player sells, capturing all of that money that everyone else poured in. You see? It's a predatory game, and you don't have to take my word for it. Examine the graphs and you'll see "jump-sells" like that over and over again.

waterlesscloud 12y ago
The timeframe for Bitcoin returning to $1200 is certainly not 'decades'. If it hasn't done so in a few years, it's never going to. It's going to die.
polarix 12y ago
> there are other ways to grow a nest egg from $20k to $68k without gambling it If you mean to do so quickly, and without taking some significant risk, I'll call.
- sillysaurus3 12y ago
  No, not quickly. But quickly is how you lose it. If you don't care what happens to that $20k, then do anything you want with it. But if you do, the EV on bitcoin is probably worse than, say, learning to play poker semi-professionally.

crusso 12y ago

$1200 to $350 and almost certainly back to $1200 at some point I lost a significant amount of money thinking that way during the .com bubble collapse.

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
zanny 12y ago
Well if you bought Google or Amazon in 1998 and rode that out you would be sitting pretty right now!
- tcskeptic 12y ago
  Google didn't go public until 2004.

kansface 12y ago

Why is the price guaranteed to increase forever (or at least until it reaches 1200)?

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
jasonisalive 12y ago
Eventually when no one will accept fiat currencies anymore it will be worth infinite [pick your fiat currency]
- vectorpush 12y ago
  I hope that's a joke, because it doesn't seem like a very reasonable expectation.
  - jasonisalive 12y ago
    It seems utterly reasonable to me. What could be more reasonable than wanting your medium of exchange to be out of the control of incompetent, corruptible governments? What could be more reasonable than wanting your medium of exchange to be based upon open-source, community-edited code, that anyone can review, contribute to, and build on top of? What could be more reasonable than wanting your medium of exchange to be available to anyone, anywhere, anytime, regardless of political orientation, without asking anyone's permission? Sorry but fiat currencies possess no advantages other than incumbent localised network effects. The world needs a true global currency and Bitcoin is it.
    - tonysuper 12y ago
      Until somebody invents a quantum computer with a sufficiently large number of Qbits. Then they can completely destroy the blockchain. Alternatively, wait a few hundred years until you need several hundred terabytes to store the blockchain, which is required for transactions. That's going to be a problem. Or you could switch to Bitcoin before realizing that currencies which deflate in value are a terrible idea. (For the record, I support cryptocurrency. I just think Bitcoin has too many issues to be viable long-term. Nice proof of concept, but it needs to be refined).

seanflyon 12y ago

Why would that be certain? The only reason Bitcoin is more valuable than the seanflyonCoin that I just invented is that people trust it. If people stopped trusting Bitcoin its value would go to near 0 and stay there.