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Why will launching a space vehicle never be as routine as commercial air travel? I think it should be one of the goals of mankind. There is no fundamental law

by jtchang 12y ago

Why will launching a space vehicle never be as routine as commercial air travel? I think it should be one of the goals of mankind. There is no fundamental law of physics that says we can't make it routine. The author states that they don't think it will be feasible in our lifetime. However the amount of technological advancement that has been made over the past century is astounding. There is no reason to think this would be unfeasible.

eropple 12y ago
Economics and the progression of aerospace technology have more to do with it than "fundamental laws of physics". Strapping stuff to a gigantic tower of boom just doesn't scale that well and unless you believe that the aforementioned strapping-to-a-tower-of-boom can be iteratively improved to reduce its cost by multiple decimal places, making space vehicles "routine" requires something other than iterative advancement. You can at least somewhat plan iterative advancement, but finding new global maxima is really, really hard and unpredictable. (I would not be surprised if getting to space eventually becomes unremarkable, though I would be surprised if it happened in my lifetime. I would be stunned if launching a vehicle from dirt to space ever became as routine as air travel is today, however, because it doesn't make very much sense.)
pi-err 12y ago
It took >300 years for transatlantic marine routes to reach acceptable levels of safety - and it really had to wait for modern navigation system + coal propulsion + metal. I wonder if going to space will become routine before supraconduction and MHD drives are widespread. Like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamato_1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamato_1 for air travel.
brudgers 12y ago
No, it will never be as routine as commercial air travel. Yes, there are fundamental laws of physics that say we cannot make it routine. [1] [1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation
- lern_too_spel 12y ago
  Rocket launches will never be as routine. Other launch methods will eventually become routine. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocket_spacelaunch http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocket_spacelaunch
  - brudgers 12y ago
    According to the link and reasonably assuming that the reference to commercial air travel implied human payloads, none of the technologies above readiness level 2 are suitable due to either lack of payload capacity or gee forces induced or both. What the table shows is that it might be theoretically possible to develop some other technology, not that such a technology actually will come into existence.
    - lern_too_spel 12y ago
      Neither the short time horizon nor the human space travel restriction were in the original question. Nonhuman space delivery will become routine relatively quickly, and human space travel will become routine after. It's inevitable.
mkramlich 12y ago
SpaceX appears to be our best chance currently for one day making it routine. And an order of magnitude cheaper. They've stated as much. And they're still in that lucky stage of business life when they have their founding genius in charge, pushing them to do those possible impossibles. And he has that rare mix of engineering and business sense.

by jtchang 12y ago

eropple 12y ago

Economics and the progression of aerospace technology have more to do with it than "fundamental laws of physics". Strapping stuff to a gigantic tower of boom just doesn't scale that well and unless you believe that the aforementioned strapping-to-a-tower-of-boom can be iteratively improved to reduce its cost by multiple decimal places, making space vehicles "routine" requires something other than iterative advancement. You can at least somewhat plan iterative advancement, but finding new global maxima is really, really hard and unpredictable. (I would not be surprised if getting to space eventually becomes unremarkable, though I would be surprised if it happened in my lifetime. I would be stunned if launching a vehicle from dirt to space ever became as routine as air travel is today, however, because it doesn't make very much sense.)

pi-err 12y ago

It took >300 years for transatlantic marine routes to reach acceptable levels of safety - and it really had to wait for modern navigation system + coal propulsion + metal. I wonder if going to space will become routine before supraconduction and MHD drives are widespread. Like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamato_1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamato_1 for air travel.

brudgers 12y ago

No, it will never be as routine as commercial air travel. Yes, there are fundamental laws of physics that say we cannot make it routine. [1] [1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation

lern_too_spel 12y ago
Rocket launches will never be as routine. Other launch methods will eventually become routine. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocket_spacelaunch http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocket_spacelaunch
- brudgers 12y ago
  According to the link and reasonably assuming that the reference to commercial air travel implied human payloads, none of the technologies above readiness level 2 are suitable due to either lack of payload capacity or gee forces induced or both. What the table shows is that it might be theoretically possible to develop some other technology, not that such a technology actually will come into existence.
  - lern_too_spel 12y ago
    Neither the short time horizon nor the human space travel restriction were in the original question. Nonhuman space delivery will become routine relatively quickly, and human space travel will become routine after. It's inevitable.

mkramlich 12y ago

SpaceX appears to be our best chance currently for one day making it routine. And an order of magnitude cheaper. They've stated as much. And they're still in that lucky stage of business life when they have their founding genius in charge, pushing them to do those possible impossibles. And he has that rare mix of engineering and business sense.