3 ms·
We just plain don't know This is the key thing. We're just modeling, and models aren't so trustworthy over the long term when they're based only on past exper
by mathattack 12y ago
We just plain don't know
This is the key thing. We're just modeling, and models aren't so trustworthy over the long term when they're based only on past experience.
- crusso 12y agoModels that don't prove their ability to predict are much worse than untrustworthy.
- mathattack 12y agoIt's false confidence (confidence intervals, assuming that distributions don't change, etc) that causes real problems. Never trust a novice running a regression. :-)