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Those historical adjustments are on the scale of hundreds or thousands of years. Also, there has never been as rapid a rise in CO2 as there is right now. That
by bdamm 12y ago
Those historical adjustments are on the scale of hundreds or thousands of years. Also, there has never been as rapid a rise in CO2 as there is right now. That might mean that the rise is too fast for the feedback mechanism to work. We just plain don't know, because I don't think anyone has identified the actual feedback mechanism chain.
- mathattack 12y agoWe just plain don't know This is the key thing. We're just modeling, and models aren't so trustworthy over the long term when they're based only on past experience.
- crusso 12y agoModels that don't prove their ability to predict are much worse than untrustworthy.
- mathattack 12y agoIt's false confidence (confidence intervals, assuming that distributions don't change, etc) that causes real problems. Never trust a novice running a regression. :-)