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No. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is estimated to be far greater for PV and wind. Why? The operation and management (O&M) for PV and Wind is insan

No. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is estimated to be far greater for PV and wind. Why? The operation and management (O&M) for PV and Wind is insanely high. Grid scale PV has to be continuously cleaned with deionized water because dust and greenery can dramatically decrease efficiency. If a leaf lands on a cell, energy builds up like a capacitor in the shadowed area, and it can eventually decimate the whole cell. On wind: the intermittency is overwhelming, and the cost to deal with that at base load is estimated in the trillions without even adding an extra megawatt to the grid. In an urbanized setting, plants must be able to concentrate energy using small land mass. Neither wind or PV can do this at scale. Some panel data on LCOE in this paper: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17695.pdf http://www.nber.org/papers/w17695.pdf

cwal37 12y ago
Naw, you're still oversimplifying it and being way too pessimistic. Renewables aren't 100% the answer yet, but their LCOE in practice isn't that bad right now at all[1]. I realize this is at relatively low levels of penetration, but their uptake has been extremely rapid and tech progression has been quick. Solar is still expensive as fuck, but everyone knows that. Look at those variable O&M costs though, those are some sexy zeroes if you can lock in your other costs adequately. Pages 10 and 11 here [2](warning, pdf), discuss wind curtailment in MISO, where they've tackled the curtailment problem head-on with great success. They also estimate that they can keep manual curtailment incredibly low until wind doubles in capacity from the time of the report. The intermittentency is not overwhelming until you have much more wind in the system than we currently do. Additionally, there are exiting traditional storage techniques that don't get much traction for a variety of reasons (like pumped storage), which we could build out hard if we actually needed to. A healthy mix of renewables, storage technology, grid upgrades, and more efficient traditional generation technologies would leave us in a fine position. [1]http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm [2]http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrel.gov%2Fdocs%2Ffy14osti%2F60983.pdf&ei=fC6LVOWGIoWxyQSz9oG4Dw&usg=AFQjCNEy89XmStkVVRMwFMfx91TwP78Lfw&sig2=-g9dh3myK0l8mh-NZeWmPA&bvm=bv.81828268,d.aWw&cad=rja http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd... Hmm, never been downvoted before for providing a sourced comment with relevant information. Guess people aren't down for discussion today.
crdoconnor 12y ago
>Grid scale PV has to be continuously cleaned with deionized water because dust and greenery can dramatically decrease efficiency. If a leaf lands on a cell, energy builds up like a capacitor in the shadowed area, and it can eventually decimate the whole cell. tl;dr the maintenance requirements of a solar panel are that it needs to be wiped down occasionally or it very gradually produces less power. >On wind: the intermittency is overwhelming Except in the places its been tried - e.g. Germany or Denmark or China. You can check out a live feed of how much energy is produced by wind energy in those countries and the intermittency is overwhelmingly underwhelming.

cwal37 12y ago

Naw, you're still oversimplifying it and being way too pessimistic. Renewables aren't 100% the answer yet, but their LCOE in practice isn't that bad right now at all[1]. I realize this is at relatively low levels of penetration, but their uptake has been extremely rapid and tech progression has been quick. Solar is still expensive as fuck, but everyone knows that. Look at those variable O&M costs though, those are some sexy zeroes if you can lock in your other costs adequately. Pages 10 and 11 here [2](warning, pdf), discuss wind curtailment in MISO, where they've tackled the curtailment problem head-on with great success. They also estimate that they can keep manual curtailment incredibly low until wind doubles in capacity from the time of the report. The intermittentency is not overwhelming until you have much more wind in the system than we currently do. Additionally, there are exiting traditional storage techniques that don't get much traction for a variety of reasons (like pumped storage), which we could build out hard if we actually needed to. A healthy mix of renewables, storage technology, grid upgrades, and more efficient traditional generation technologies would leave us in a fine position. [1]http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm [2]http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrel.gov%2Fdocs%2Ffy14osti%2F60983.pdf&ei=fC6LVOWGIoWxyQSz9oG4Dw&usg=AFQjCNEy89XmStkVVRMwFMfx91TwP78Lfw&sig2=-g9dh3myK0l8mh-NZeWmPA&bvm=bv.81828268,d.aWw&cad=rja http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd... Hmm, never been downvoted before for providing a sourced comment with relevant information. Guess people aren't down for discussion today.

crdoconnor 12y ago

>Grid scale PV has to be continuously cleaned with deionized water because dust and greenery can dramatically decrease efficiency. If a leaf lands on a cell, energy builds up like a capacitor in the shadowed area, and it can eventually decimate the whole cell. tl;dr the maintenance requirements of a solar panel are that it needs to be wiped down occasionally or it very gradually produces less power. >On wind: the intermittency is overwhelming Except in the places its been tried - e.g. Germany or Denmark or China. You can check out a live feed of how much energy is produced by wind energy in those countries and the intermittency is overwhelmingly underwhelming.