3 ms·
Not sure I fully buy the argument that the industry is actually genuinely losing that $6bn. If I buy plates in bulk but find that 25% are usually broken in ship
by jnty 12y ago
Not sure I fully buy the argument that the industry is actually genuinely losing that $6bn. If I buy plates in bulk but find that 25% are usually broken in shipping, I will tend to pay 25% less for each shipment on the assumption that this will happen - the supplier might even have already priced this in.
Online advertising is a much more fluid market and very metrics-focused - I find it hard to believe that most smart companies haven't priced this into their bidding. There's not some sort of intrinsic value per click or impression - it should purely be based on the expected propensity of it leading to a conversion. Fake clicks and impressions are just a factor which reduces this and therefore it should automatically be taken into account.
In fact, I'm surprised it's not the suppliers of inventory, like YouTube, who are complaining that this is erroding their value. If advertisers are getting caught out by this then they're not being very smart.
- blfr 12y agoThat's what I thought but the fraudulent ad views are probably not distributed evenly. You can't just assume that 25% of views on your ads are fraudulent. There's a lot of uncertainty here.
- jnty 12y agoAs long as it's not a hugely noisy in the way it changes within each exchange/source of inventory, you should be able to account for it. Don't forget plenty of other "legitimate" changes happen every day to affect the value of placements too - usage patterns, page layouts, tastes and fashions etc. They can be just as nefarious but all need to be accounted for - fraud is just another factor.
- learnstats2 12y ago25% is an average => some small advertisers likely close to 100% broken in a way which is not immediately visible to them.
- sp332 12y agoThere's a big difference if 25% of your plates are accidentally broken in shipping vs being smashed with a hammer in the warehouse.
- jnty 12y agoI imagine the supplier would probably care (and maybe the police too) but as long as I'm paying 25% less it's not really my problem.
- Retra 12y agoYour 'big difference' is _intent_, a flighty, volatile emotion that no rational person will ever care to account for.
- sp332 12y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mens_rea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mens_rea
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]
- Retra 12y agoThe whole point of my post is that this kind of thinking is bullshit. Saying "the courts do it" doesn't contradict that, it's just an appeal to history or authority.
- sp332 12y agoIf I break the plates, you might be able to get restitution from me. You can't get that from a bumpy road. Also, you might be able to avoid broken plates in the first place by threatening me with jail time. You can't threaten a road into being less rough. The intention of a person completely changes the threat profile and mitigation strategy, that's why it's a big deal.
- 12y ago
- unreal37 12y agoI think you're right. It's not "the end of digital advertising". It's just another factor among many that lead to lower PPC prices. When GM left Facebook because they claimed Facebook ads don't work, it was a huge story. But when GM returned to Facebook less than a year later, that didn't get as much publicity.
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]