Very few train riders are large-city-to-large-city passengers. The most successful train lines may terminate in a large city, but it is the density of the route

Very few train riders are large-city-to-large-city passengers. The most successful train lines may terminate in a large city, but it is the density of the route that matters, not the termini. There are plenty of very successful routes in the world that are between two small cities, or only with 1 large terminus. The LGV Mediternnanee, from a demographic standpoint, isn't much different than a line from Indianapolis to Chicago line, and the Nagano Shinkansen line not much different from a Seattle to Portland line. And yet both of those lines are extremely profitable. This is mostly due to simple competition...the existence of passenger airliners, regardless of how competitive the train or airline offerings are, reduces market share. I guarantee you that the most profitable ticket sales on California's HSR fairy tale will be between (LA|SF) and (Fresno|Bakersfield|Modesto). Not between LA and SF.