The bottom line is that a single previous success is not indicative of likely future success when creating new things. If you create something like Facebook, th

The bottom line is that a single previous success is not indicative of likely future success when creating new things. If you create something like Facebook, that's fine, because you can monetize the core product indefinitely. But when you create a game or a movie or a hit song that has a limited lifespan, there's very little indication that you can do it again. Once you churn out a long sequence of hits like Disney, you can claim to understand the process, but until then you might have just done the right thing at the right time.