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When Firefox was version 0.9 (2003?), I said it would take a large chunk out of IE's 95% market share and IE would become an also ran browser. I also said, late
by icantthinkofone 12y ago
When Firefox was version 0.9 (2003?), I said it would take a large chunk out of IE's 95% market share and IE would become an also ran browser. I also said, later, that iPhones and iPads would take over mobile and dominate the internet and Google would be more important than Microsoft on a day-to-day basis.
In both cases I was made fun of and downvoted into oblivion.
So listen to what I'm saying now. In three to five years, none of you will be using .NET anything. Well, some of you will be maintaining legacy stuff but, new things? No. Especially in five years, no one will think of doing any new project in .NET anything.
As I said back in 2003, write it down. Check back with me. I'll see you then.
- radmuzom 12y agoWell, it appears that in both cases you were wrong. IE still has higher market share than Firefox, with Chrome being the clear leader it seems (though some usage stats may show otherwise). Even today, Microsoft is far far more important than Google for their users - not necessarily developers. If Google disappeared tomorrow, yes it would make it a bit difficult to work in the short term, but people will manage. If Windows / Offce were to say, vanish tomorrow, then millions of businesses will just collapse and cannot function at all.
- icantthinkofone 12y agoI didn't say Firefox would be the leader. The internet is bigger than Microsoft and, on the internet, no one cares about Microsoft. Rather than edit what I said, I'll add here. I guarantee what I said about .NET.
- nbevans 12y agoLoyalties are cheap on the internet. You can say "no one cares about X". Just look at all the companies that switch between AWS and Azure these days whenever one or the other has an outage. Microsoft is making aggressive moves now. .NET is a technically superior platform to almost anything else out there. True developers tend to gravitate towards what is the best. To see where .NET is heading you really need to look at Xamarin. You act like you are the only one to have made those original predictions (re: IE declining market share, and iPhone being a big shake up to the status quo of the time). You weren't. Nobody else apart from you seems to be acting so blasé about predicting the death of .NET. To the contrary, most are thinking on the opposite end of the spectrum. F# is gaining a large amount of traction now (just look at its advance on the TIOBE index). As is Xamarin. As is Azure. Java is dying a slow death at the hands of Oracle. None of the recent "improvements" to its core language were done correctly . Just look at their type erasure of generics. And their bastardised implementation of lambda expressions. .NET will serve as a natural destination for all those increasingly alienated developers and companies using the Java stack.
- icantthinkofone 12y agoObviously you weren't around in 2003.
- nbevans 12y agoI was. Cheeky fucker.
- icantthinkofone 12y agoObviously you weren't.
- cwills 12y agoObviously you are a fool
- icantthinkofone 12y agoYou're right but at least I'm not stupid.
- bbcbasic 12y agoI am sure Hacker News wasn't around in 2003
- icantthinkofone 12y agoI didn't say I said it on Hacker News.
- guilloche 12y agoI am with you.
- bbcbasic 12y agoThere is a good chance you are right. .NET was a huge advantage when it came out compared to anything else. Faster than Java, easier than C++, etc. Now there is not as marked an advantage. There are now so many great frameworks and languages to choose from, and alternative languages for frameworks. There isn't much competitive advantage for .NET in the longer term. I spend my nights coding in Ruby!