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Disagree with almost everything you've written. It's a winner-take-most/all, trillion plus dollar market. Investors getting in at $40b, besides having little do

by pbreit 12y ago

Disagree with almost everything you've written. It's a winner-take-most/all, trillion plus dollar market. Investors getting in at $40b, besides having little downside due to preferences, will almost certainly make a reasonable return. Uber is already on track for $1b in revenue and continues to grow very rapidly. Governments have in fact shown no ability to stop Uber (only a very few instances in the entire world). Peter Thiel would argue (effectively, imo) that monopolies are important in driving innovation.

mcintyre1994 12y ago
I can't think of anything that would stop governments destroying Uber - is there anything? They've already started getting banned in various places, and it's not hard to write laws to enforce a taxi monopoly. They're doing well but I don't see anything that would stop government regulating them out of existence. They're no, say, Bitcoin in that regard for sure.
- pbreit 12y ago
  Well, so far constituents and a bit of common sense have stopped government action in almost every locale.
tzs 12y ago
> Governments have in fact shown no ability to stop Uber Governments have not seriously tried to stop Uber yet. If/when they do, they will easily succeed. Right now, the farthest most have gone is fining drivers a relatively small amount, which Uber pays. What happens when they step that up to seizing the car? Who is going to sign up to be an Uber driver in a city where it can get your car seized? Here's how I predict it will go down. Cities will eventually decide to legalize Uber-type services, with such companies required to obtain a license. There will be a limited number of companies licensed in each city--it makes much more sense for the city and its citizens to have a small number of healthy companies than to have a large number of companies barely scraping by. Those licenses will go to Lyft and other non-Uber services, because they have not had the "fuck you" attitude that Uber has. That's when the cities will crack down severely on Uber.
mbesto 12y ago
Uber is already on track for $1b in revenue* *gross revenue. Big difference.
- pbreit 12y ago
  Actually on track for $10b gross and $2b net.
  - mbesto 12y ago
    I can only find one source[0] and it's source is quoted as "is what I'm hearing" for an estimate at the end of the FY2015 (13 months from now). That's pretty bold stance without any real confirmation. [0] - http://www.businessinsider.com/ubers-revenue-2014-11 http://www.businessinsider.com/ubers-revenue-2014-11
    - pbreit 12y ago
      Either way, the $1b is net, not gross.

by pbreit 12y ago

mcintyre1994 12y ago

I can't think of anything that would stop governments destroying Uber - is there anything? They've already started getting banned in various places, and it's not hard to write laws to enforce a taxi monopoly. They're doing well but I don't see anything that would stop government regulating them out of existence. They're no, say, Bitcoin in that regard for sure.

pbreit 12y ago
Well, so far constituents and a bit of common sense have stopped government action in almost every locale.

tzs 12y ago

> Governments have in fact shown no ability to stop Uber Governments have not seriously tried to stop Uber yet. If/when they do, they will easily succeed. Right now, the farthest most have gone is fining drivers a relatively small amount, which Uber pays. What happens when they step that up to seizing the car? Who is going to sign up to be an Uber driver in a city where it can get your car seized? Here's how I predict it will go down. Cities will eventually decide to legalize Uber-type services, with such companies required to obtain a license. There will be a limited number of companies licensed in each city--it makes much more sense for the city and its citizens to have a small number of healthy companies than to have a large number of companies barely scraping by. Those licenses will go to Lyft and other non-Uber services, because they have not had the "fuck you" attitude that Uber has. That's when the cities will crack down severely on Uber.

mbesto 12y ago

Uber is already on track for $1b in revenue* *gross revenue. Big difference.

pbreit 12y ago
Actually on track for $10b gross and $2b net.
- mbesto 12y ago
  I can only find one source[0] and it's source is quoted as "is what I'm hearing" for an estimate at the end of the FY2015 (13 months from now). That's pretty bold stance without any real confirmation. [0] - http://www.businessinsider.com/ubers-revenue-2014-11 http://www.businessinsider.com/ubers-revenue-2014-11
  - pbreit 12y ago
    Either way, the $1b is net, not gross.