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Shooting yourself out of the game? The 3 pointer and the Binomial Distribution
- madcaptenor 12y agoWhen I do the simulation, I get 47.5% Rockets win, 48.2% Kings win, 4.3% ties. It's not quite as bad as the post makes it sound. That being said it is interesting that the problem isn't symmetric. The distribution of x (points scored by the Rockets, who are shooting 3s in this example) is skewed, while the distribution of y isn't. In general three-point results will be more skewed than two-point results, because shooting percentages are generally less than 50 percent, and three-point shooting percentages are lower than two-point shooting percentages, therefore further from 50 percent.