4 ms·
Ask HN: Will Peak Employment happen?
I'd like to coin "Peak Employment" for the following:
I think that within the next N (15-30?) years, we'll reach a point in time when more people will be employed than will ever be employed after that time.
Do you think this will happen (globally, or in the US, etc.), and when do you think it will occur?
- mangeletti 12y agoProposing some possible Reasons: 1. technological advancements and automation (i.e., "Tractored Out" - see http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe30s/machines_02.html http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe30s/machines_02...) 2. population decrease (e.g., less people needed to support the wealthy, due to reason 1, causing long-term famine and eventual decrease in population) 3. wealth distribution and socialism, due to reason 1 (resulting in equalized output without increasing labor requirements)
- dllthomas 12y agoTo clarify, are we talking absolute numbers, percentage of the total population, or percentage of the population interested in working?
- mangeletti 12y agoThe question is pertaining the total number of people employed.
- dragonwriter 12y agoIf you look at it in terms of percentage of available lifetime hours devoted to wage labor, I would expect it will happen -- if it hasn't already -- but I don't think that that clear enough statistics are available to be certain if or when it has.
- mangeletti 12y agoI agree, it'll be tough to know exactly when, but it'll be clear in hindsight if/when it happens.
- e3pi 12y agoAsk HN: Will Peak Slavery happen? I'd like to coin "Peak Slavery" for the following: I think that within the next N (15-30?) years, we'll reach a point in time when more people will be enslaved and waged-slaved than will ever be employed after that time. Do you think this will happen (globally, or in the US, etc.), and when do you think it will occur? http://theneedleblog.wordpress.com/2012/07/10/peak-employment/ http://theneedleblog.wordpress.com/2012/07/10/peak-employmen...
- mangeletti 12y agoWow, nice find (blog link).