5 ms·

I'm definitely expecting the private sector to do it at least a decade before NASA does it.

bduerst 12y ago
I'm curious why people think it will happen in the private sector first. Is there some applied science, resource, tourism, or other value to be had? We haven't seen a private sector moon landing yet (it's been 50 years since NASA did it) simply because there isn't much market value in putting a person on the moon. So why Mars?
- cschmidt 12y ago
  I suppose because Elon Musk wants to go there, and he seems good at getting stuff done.
  - 14113 12y ago
    This comment really sums up the cult of personality that's grown up around Musk.
    - markdown 12y ago
      The world needs more Musk fanboys and less Beliebers, thank you very much.
      - saraid216 12y ago
        The kind of mind that can produce such a false dichotomy.
      - bduerst 12y ago
        The world needs more critical thinking, and less judging.
  - ryandvm 12y ago
    Building a better car has an expected return on investment. So far nobody is able to come up with a way to recoup the many hundreds of millions of dollars it will cost to get humans to Mars and back.
    - cecilpl 12y ago
      It's entirely possible that Elon Musk doesn't care about recouping his investment in SpaceX. It seems like the end goal of the company is to start a colony on Mars so he can go live there.
    - jack-r-abbit 12y ago
      Q: "Why do you want to climb Mount Everest?" - unknown A: "Because it's there" - George Mallory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Mallory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Mallory)
      - Retra 12y ago
        That's not a reason, that's a trite saying.
    - cryptoz 12y ago
      > So far nobody Well...Elon has made guesses/estimates/given us lots of ideas about his monetization strategy. I think the most promising is to sell tickets at $500,000 apiece, which he thinks will be about the going market price to meet a demand of ~100,000 colonists. Mars One thinks they can do it on a TV show (they'll fail, though, obviously). My point is that your "nobody" comment is unfair and incorrect. Lots of intelligent, capable and experienced people have articulated a number of different business models around the colonization of Mars. None of them are proven, of course, but that will take time.
    - WalterBright 12y ago
      Many great voyages of exploration were privately financed, often by newspapers who got exclusive story rights in exchange. Considering all the money corporations spend on marketing to create goodwill, I'm surprised none have financed a space probe for goodwill purposes.
  - andrewchambers 12y ago
    You think the organization that landed man on the moon and rovers on mars can't get stuff done?
    - seanflyon 12y ago
      Today's NASA has little in common with the organization that put men on the Moon, but they can put rovers on Mars so they have some ability to get stuff done.
- danielweber 12y ago
  The private sector will be selling the trips to Mars because they will make money. The people buying the trips will not be making money. It will be consumption, not investment.
BrainInAJar 12y ago
I doubt it, the private sector only innovates if there's enough & immediate enough profit on the line. Even the libertarian darling SpaceX is just piggybacking off the research and hard work of the public sector (ie, NASA's work in the 50's -> 80's)
ubernostrum 12y ago
Because private-sector corporations never have problems with every manager wanting to add something to justify his/her budget and existence, resulting in a bloated over-budget under-delivered project.
anigbrowl 12y ago
Upside: you could end up owning your own goddamn planet! Downside: you can't do anything with it. You're not going to make the staggering costs back in space tourism, notwithstanding geeks' relatively high risk tolerance; you need the possibility of some self-sustaining economic activity.

I'm curious why people think it will happen in the private sector first. Is there some applied science, resource, tourism, or other value to be had? We haven't seen a private sector moon landing yet (it's been 50 years since NASA did it) simply because there isn't much market value in putting a person on the moon. So why Mars?

cschmidt 12y ago
I suppose because Elon Musk wants to go there, and he seems good at getting stuff done.
- 14113 12y ago
  This comment really sums up the cult of personality that's grown up around Musk.
  - markdown 12y ago
    The world needs more Musk fanboys and less Beliebers, thank you very much.
    - saraid216 12y ago
      The kind of mind that can produce such a false dichotomy.
    - bduerst 12y ago
      The world needs more critical thinking, and less judging.
- ryandvm 12y ago
  Building a better car has an expected return on investment. So far nobody is able to come up with a way to recoup the many hundreds of millions of dollars it will cost to get humans to Mars and back.
  - cecilpl 12y ago
    It's entirely possible that Elon Musk doesn't care about recouping his investment in SpaceX. It seems like the end goal of the company is to start a colony on Mars so he can go live there.
  - jack-r-abbit 12y ago
    Q: "Why do you want to climb Mount Everest?" - unknown A: "Because it's there" - George Mallory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Mallory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Mallory)
    - Retra 12y ago
      That's not a reason, that's a trite saying.
  - cryptoz 12y ago
    > So far nobody Well...Elon has made guesses/estimates/given us lots of ideas about his monetization strategy. I think the most promising is to sell tickets at $500,000 apiece, which he thinks will be about the going market price to meet a demand of ~100,000 colonists. Mars One thinks they can do it on a TV show (they'll fail, though, obviously). My point is that your "nobody" comment is unfair and incorrect. Lots of intelligent, capable and experienced people have articulated a number of different business models around the colonization of Mars. None of them are proven, of course, but that will take time.
  - WalterBright 12y ago
    Many great voyages of exploration were privately financed, often by newspapers who got exclusive story rights in exchange. Considering all the money corporations spend on marketing to create goodwill, I'm surprised none have financed a space probe for goodwill purposes.
- andrewchambers 12y ago
  You think the organization that landed man on the moon and rovers on mars can't get stuff done?
  - seanflyon 12y ago
    Today's NASA has little in common with the organization that put men on the Moon, but they can put rovers on Mars so they have some ability to get stuff done.
danielweber 12y ago
The private sector will be selling the trips to Mars because they will make money. The people buying the trips will not be making money. It will be consumption, not investment.

BrainInAJar 12y ago

I doubt it, the private sector only innovates if there's enough & immediate enough profit on the line. Even the libertarian darling SpaceX is just piggybacking off the research and hard work of the public sector (ie, NASA's work in the 50's -> 80's)

ubernostrum 12y ago

Because private-sector corporations never have problems with every manager wanting to add something to justify his/her budget and existence, resulting in a bloated over-budget under-delivered project.

anigbrowl 12y ago

Upside: you could end up owning your own goddamn planet! Downside: you can't do anything with it. You're not going to make the staggering costs back in space tourism, notwithstanding geeks' relatively high risk tolerance; you need the possibility of some self-sustaining economic activity.