It seems irrational to make such a prediction about systems which we don’t understand at all. It’s not clear how sophisticated a neural network needs to be in

It seems irrational to make such a prediction about systems which we don’t understand at all. It’s not clear how sophisticated a neural network needs to be in order to yield AGI. It could be very simple (then you would be wrong with high probability), or it could extremely complex (then you would be right with high probability).