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> In fact, newborn children in high-income countries can expect to live to more than 100 years. Not sure if you used the correct word (and if I interpret it co

by tomp 12y ago

> In fact, newborn children in high-income countries can expect to live to more than 100 years. Not sure if you used the correct word (and if I interpret it correctly), but I find the expected age of 100 a bit hard to believe, given that (1) humans don't live longer than about 120 years, and (2) many die much younger than 80.

tokenadult 12y ago
I have aunts and uncles who have lived a long time, with two of them in fine health above age 90, so I find this a bit more believable. My maternal grandmother, their mother, lived to be 99. Anyway, on the issue you doubt, Vaupel and other professional demographers "show the work" in their professional publications.
wyager 12y ago
>humans don't live longer than about 120 years That's not a hard limit. There are a number of promising avenues of research likely to push human lifespan substantially higher.
- tsotha 12y ago
  Actually, it's a pretty hard limit based on cell death. You can never predict when an amazing breakthrough will come about, but without it you're not going to see people living to 150.
diego 12y ago
Life expectancy simply means that 50% of those people will be dead by 100. It could be that 99% of them are dead by 110. That's a perfectly plausible distribution. Japan, for example, has over 50k 100+ inhabitants (and probably 0 over 120).
- tomp 12y ago
  No, it doesn't. From Wikipefia: > Life expectancy is a statistical average of the number of years a human lives Therefore, if 3 people live until 110, and the fourth dies at 30, life expectancy is 90 years. In another part of his comment, tokenadult mentioned another estimate that means what you're describing: > Girls born since 2000 in the developed world are more likely than not to reach the age of 100
deleted 12y ago
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CapitalistCartr 12y ago
In the past half century, the life expectancy for the UK has risen a decade to 81.5. And that's across disparate demographics. I expect it will rise more in the next half century.
melling 12y ago
Do people younger than 80 die of old age? I would hope that over the next 50 years, heart disease and cancer, for example, become treatable. We should be lifting weights and maintaining our strength into our 80's: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/11/28/77-year-old-woman-can-lift-more-weights-than-you/19640963/ http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/11/28/77-year...

by tomp 12y ago

tokenadult 12y ago

I have aunts and uncles who have lived a long time, with two of them in fine health above age 90, so I find this a bit more believable. My maternal grandmother, their mother, lived to be 99. Anyway, on the issue you doubt, Vaupel and other professional demographers "show the work" in their professional publications.

wyager 12y ago

>humans don't live longer than about 120 years That's not a hard limit. There are a number of promising avenues of research likely to push human lifespan substantially higher.

tsotha 12y ago
Actually, it's a pretty hard limit based on cell death. You can never predict when an amazing breakthrough will come about, but without it you're not going to see people living to 150.

diego 12y ago

Life expectancy simply means that 50% of those people will be dead by 100. It could be that 99% of them are dead by 110. That's a perfectly plausible distribution. Japan, for example, has over 50k 100+ inhabitants (and probably 0 over 120).

tomp 12y ago
No, it doesn't. From Wikipefia: > Life expectancy is a statistical average of the number of years a human lives Therefore, if 3 people live until 110, and the fourth dies at 30, life expectancy is 90 years. In another part of his comment, tokenadult mentioned another estimate that means what you're describing: > Girls born since 2000 in the developed world are more likely than not to reach the age of 100

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

CapitalistCartr 12y ago

In the past half century, the life expectancy for the UK has risen a decade to 81.5. And that's across disparate demographics. I expect it will rise more in the next half century.

melling 12y ago

Do people younger than 80 die of old age? I would hope that over the next 50 years, heart disease and cancer, for example, become treatable. We should be lifting weights and maintaining our strength into our 80's: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/11/28/77-year-old-woman-can-lift-more-weights-than-you/19640963/ http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/11/28/77-year...