4 ms·
This is a good observation, and reminds me of an article I read a while back about why the parole system works so poorly (it was a great article, sorry that I d
by geebee 12y ago
This is a good observation, and reminds me of an article I read a while back about why the parole system works so poorly (it was a great article, sorry that I don't have the link).
The theory was that much or our criminal law system makes an assumption of a rational actor. A 1% chance of severe penalty would deter a crime where they payoff is minor (i.e.., the small chance of a severely punished DUI would convince a rational actor to call a cab).
But it doesn't appear to work that way. The article suggested that the best way to deter certain types of repeated criminal behavior are consequences that are swift, certain, and measured (in severity). Instead, what we have is slow, random, and severe. Supposedly, that does little to deter crime, but does a great filling up prisons and creating people who have a lifelong criminal history for job applications.
- baddox 12y agoYour description of people's reaction to the risk and severity of punishment sounds entirely rational.
- ianferrel 12y agoA rational actor would be twice as deterred if you kept the risk of punishment the same and doubled the severity. But actual people don't respond that way. They respond to the risk rather than the expected punishment.
- baddox 12y agoYou'd probably need to define and use "marginal severity," which unfortunately probably ends up being subjective and difficult to analyze.
- droopyEyelids 12y agoThe problem with this is everyone's definition of Rational Actor is arbitrary in what incentives it excludes or includes. Talking about what a Rational Actor would do makes about as much sense as claiming your opinion is fully objective.
- baddox 12y agoIn my opinion, the version of rationality that has the most relevance to economic analysis (and should really be the primary definition of the term in economics) is bounded rationality. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bounded_rationality http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bounded_rationality