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Timothy Salthouse is the dean of researchers on cognitive changes over the course of human lifespan.[1] So Hacker News readers who would like to know more about

Timothy Salthouse is the dean of researchers on cognitive changes over the course of human lifespan.[1] So Hacker News readers who would like to know more about their futures (we already know we are getting older, not younger, as the years go by) would do well to read some of his publications[2] to find out what's inevitable and what's not inevitable as we all age. Most of us can readily count on living a lot more years, as human life expectancy at adult ages (like mine) is steadily increasing around the world. Girls born since 2000 in the developed world are more likely than not to reach the age of 100, with boys likely to enjoy lifespans almost as long. The article "The Biodemography of Human Ageing" by James Vaupel,[3] originally published in the journal Nature in 2010, is a good current reference on the subject. Vaupel is one of the leading scholars on the demography of aging and how to adjust for time trends in life expectancy. His striking finding is "Humans are living longer than ever before. In fact, newborn children in high-income countries can expect to live to more than 100 years. Starting in the mid-1800s, human longevity has increased dramatically and life expectancy is increasing by an average of six hours a day."[4] An article in a series on Slate, "Why Are You Not Dead Yet? Life expectancy doubled in past 150 years. Here’s why"[5] Provides some of the background. Life expectancy at age 40, at age 60, and at even higher ages is still rising throughout the developed countries of the world.[6] P.S. Some of the specific lifestyle observations and tips in this article are immediately useful for me and other middle-aged people, so the submitted article is well worth a read. [1] http://faculty.virginia.edu/cogage/lab-members/director/ http://faculty.virginia.edu/cogage/lab-members/director/ [2] http://faculty.virginia.edu/cogage/links/publications/ http://faculty.virginia.edu/cogage/links/publications/ [3] http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/2eb51e2860ef54d218ce5ce19abe6a59/dc_biodemography_of_human_ageing_nature_2010_vaupel.pdf http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/2eb51e2... [4] http://www.prb.org/Journalists/Webcasts/2010/humanlongevity.aspx http://www.prb.org/Journalists/Webcasts/2010/humanlongevity.... [5] http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science_of_longevity/2013/09/life_expectancy_history_public_health_and_medical_advances_that_lead_to.html http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science_of_... [6] http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v307/n3/box/scientificamerican0912-54_BX1.html http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v307/n3/box...

tomp 12y ago
> In fact, newborn children in high-income countries can expect to live to more than 100 years. Not sure if you used the correct word (and if I interpret it correctly), but I find the expected age of 100 a bit hard to believe, given that (1) humans don't live longer than about 120 years, and (2) many die much younger than 80.
- tokenadult 12y ago
  I have aunts and uncles who have lived a long time, with two of them in fine health above age 90, so I find this a bit more believable. My maternal grandmother, their mother, lived to be 99. Anyway, on the issue you doubt, Vaupel and other professional demographers "show the work" in their professional publications.
- wyager 12y ago
  >humans don't live longer than about 120 years That's not a hard limit. There are a number of promising avenues of research likely to push human lifespan substantially higher.
  - tsotha 12y ago
    Actually, it's a pretty hard limit based on cell death. You can never predict when an amazing breakthrough will come about, but without it you're not going to see people living to 150.
- diego 12y ago
  Life expectancy simply means that 50% of those people will be dead by 100. It could be that 99% of them are dead by 110. That's a perfectly plausible distribution. Japan, for example, has over 50k 100+ inhabitants (and probably 0 over 120).
  - tomp 12y ago
    No, it doesn't. From Wikipefia: > Life expectancy is a statistical average of the number of years a human lives Therefore, if 3 people live until 110, and the fourth dies at 30, life expectancy is 90 years. In another part of his comment, tokenadult mentioned another estimate that means what you're describing: > Girls born since 2000 in the developed world are more likely than not to reach the age of 100

tomp 12y ago

> In fact, newborn children in high-income countries can expect to live to more than 100 years. Not sure if you used the correct word (and if I interpret it correctly), but I find the expected age of 100 a bit hard to believe, given that (1) humans don't live longer than about 120 years, and (2) many die much younger than 80.

tokenadult 12y ago
I have aunts and uncles who have lived a long time, with two of them in fine health above age 90, so I find this a bit more believable. My maternal grandmother, their mother, lived to be 99. Anyway, on the issue you doubt, Vaupel and other professional demographers "show the work" in their professional publications.
wyager 12y ago
>humans don't live longer than about 120 years That's not a hard limit. There are a number of promising avenues of research likely to push human lifespan substantially higher.
- tsotha 12y ago
  Actually, it's a pretty hard limit based on cell death. You can never predict when an amazing breakthrough will come about, but without it you're not going to see people living to 150.
diego 12y ago
Life expectancy simply means that 50% of those people will be dead by 100. It could be that 99% of them are dead by 110. That's a perfectly plausible distribution. Japan, for example, has over 50k 100+ inhabitants (and probably 0 over 120).
- tomp 12y ago
  No, it doesn't. From Wikipefia: > Life expectancy is a statistical average of the number of years a human lives Therefore, if 3 people live until 110, and the fourth dies at 30, life expectancy is 90 years. In another part of his comment, tokenadult mentioned another estimate that means what you're describing: > Girls born since 2000 in the developed world are more likely than not to reach the age of 100