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The most straightforward explanation I've heard is this: The chance is 1/3 the car is behind the door chosen at first. The chance is 0 for the opened door. As
by jonsen 12y ago
The most straightforward explanation I've heard is this:
The chance is 1/3 the car is behind the door chosen at first. The chance is 0 for the opened door. As the three chances must sum to 1, the last door has a chance of 2/3.
- dllthomas 12y agoThat's great for defusing the "there are two options and it's random so it must be 50/50" initial of some, but it doesn't quite work for the "Monty chooses randomly, and happens to have revealed a goat" situation. I think the next point is that, when the host picks randomly, it is then correspondingly less likely that you've found yourself in that situation.