2 ms·
> why would you ever publish it? Suppose you have a miraculous trading algorithm that you believe makes somewhat above-market returns with somewhat below-marke
by gjm11 12y ago
> why would you ever publish it?
Suppose you have a miraculous trading algorithm that you believe makes somewhat above-market returns with somewhat below-market risks, but you have only a small amount of capital you're happy to gamble with.
Then what you can do by keeping your algorithm to yourself is: have investments that perform slightly better than most other people's. That's nice, for sure, but getting rich that way takes a long time unless you start out quite rich (or gamble a lot and get lucky, but that's also a way to get poor).
On the other hand, what you get by publishing it might be a lucrative job offer at a hedge fund or investment bank, who hope you can use the skills you've just demonstrated to get them an extra 0.1% of return on their $10B pot. Now you have the opportunity to apply the same techniques to thousands of times more money than before, along with much more data and a server room full of hardware for backtesting and other smart people who will look at your clever ideas and maybe notice if there's a big mistake or omission. Of course most of the gains from your miraculous algorithm now go to the investors, and most of the rest probably go to other people with more seniority, but you are still likely to get rich faster and more reliably that way.
I make no claim about the particular algorithm here or the person who published it. But the above seems to me like a pretty plausible reason why someone might prefer to publish, even if they have good reason to think their algorithm works.
- freddealmeida 12y agoI suppose this is the argument made for closed source over open source software as well. There are benefits in opening an algorithm since by far the current algorithm is not optimal. Of course, if you believe the market assumes all available information in pricing, then sharing an algorithm shouldn't really have an effect except for small rent extraction.
- IgorPartola 12y agoI don't know if that's a fair comparison. You can open source just about anything, because in software the execution matters a whole lot more than the core of the software in all cases (to a first approximation). For example, if Netflix open sourced their recommendation algorithm, do you think they'd go out of business because another movie streaming service would pop up overnight and take over? No, Netflix has name recognition, etc. On the other hand, there is very little barrier to entry if you have a winning stock trading algorithm. All you really need is money, which is easy to acquire (for this purpose at least).