7 ms·

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

mikeyouse 12y ago
That's a fine saying but even at 20% YoY increases in lithium usage, we'd still have 35 years or known reserves -- without any increase in exploration or recycling. As oil & gas have shown, if there's exponential demand for a naturally occurring element, we'll definitely find ways to pull more of it out of the ground.
lotsofmangos 12y ago
Increases in known reserves can also be exponential. The known reserves are 13 million tonnes. However lithium is the 25th most abundant element and you get 20mg of it for every kg of crust, so there is a lot more to find.
CamperBob2 12y ago
"Everybody who has ever claimed that something is doomed because of an exponential function was wrong."
- tripzilch 12y ago
  "... or dead."
unchocked 12y ago
"The greatest shortcoming of exponential forecasting is the S-curve."
cdoxsey 12y ago
Except all those dire predictions turned out be wrong. We didn't run out of food or resources, and birth rates have now declined in almost every country in the world. Population growth is basically now a complete non-issue. In retrospect, ignoring the Paul Ehrlichs of the world turned out to be the right move - a far cry from mankind's greatest shortcoming. If we run out of lithium we'll figure something else out, just like we would for any other resource.
- HarryHirsch 12y ago
  Except that then we have run out of available lithium, which means that solutions that require lithium will be inaccessible. Running out of chemical elements is a problem. The helium shortage is a serious problem. High-energy physics is made from helium.
  - jakobegger 12y ago
    If those physicists hurried up with cold fusion that helium shortage wouldn't be such a problem.
  - mtdewcmu 12y ago
    Why is helium found underground with natural gas? My theory is that the helium underground comes from radioactive decay and gets trapped along with methane. -- I guess there's no need to speculate when you have Google: https://www.google.com/search?q=where%20does%20helium%20come%20from https://www.google.com/search?q=where%20does%20helium%20come...
  - CamperBob2 12y ago
    We will never "run out" of anything, including oil or lithium. We'll stop wasting these resources the minute their prices rise to a level where something else becomes more economical. Regardless of when that happens, there will be plenty of lithium left for any potential fusion sources that might be developed later.

That's a fine saying but even at 20% YoY increases in lithium usage, we'd still have 35 years or known reserves -- without any increase in exploration or recycling. As oil & gas have shown, if there's exponential demand for a naturally occurring element, we'll definitely find ways to pull more of it out of the ground.

lotsofmangos 12y ago

Increases in known reserves can also be exponential. The known reserves are 13 million tonnes. However lithium is the 25th most abundant element and you get 20mg of it for every kg of crust, so there is a lot more to find.

CamperBob2 12y ago

"Everybody who has ever claimed that something is doomed because of an exponential function was wrong."

tripzilch 12y ago
"... or dead."

unchocked 12y ago

"The greatest shortcoming of exponential forecasting is the S-curve."

cdoxsey 12y ago

Except all those dire predictions turned out be wrong. We didn't run out of food or resources, and birth rates have now declined in almost every country in the world. Population growth is basically now a complete non-issue. In retrospect, ignoring the Paul Ehrlichs of the world turned out to be the right move - a far cry from mankind's greatest shortcoming. If we run out of lithium we'll figure something else out, just like we would for any other resource.

HarryHirsch 12y ago
Except that then we have run out of available lithium, which means that solutions that require lithium will be inaccessible. Running out of chemical elements is a problem. The helium shortage is a serious problem. High-energy physics is made from helium.
- jakobegger 12y ago
  If those physicists hurried up with cold fusion that helium shortage wouldn't be such a problem.
- mtdewcmu 12y ago
  Why is helium found underground with natural gas? My theory is that the helium underground comes from radioactive decay and gets trapped along with methane. -- I guess there's no need to speculate when you have Google: https://www.google.com/search?q=where%20does%20helium%20come%20from https://www.google.com/search?q=where%20does%20helium%20come...
- CamperBob2 12y ago
  We will never "run out" of anything, including oil or lithium. We'll stop wasting these resources the minute their prices rise to a level where something else becomes more economical. Regardless of when that happens, there will be plenty of lithium left for any potential fusion sources that might be developed later.