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Could someone give more background on this? Is the reunification something that's on the table now, is this just planning and hoping? It would be great to see t

Could someone give more background on this? Is the reunification something that's on the table now, is this just planning and hoping? It would be great to see that happen, it'd be great to hear from someone who knows more about this issue.

kijin 12y ago
Nothing's on the table as far as what is publicly known. This is just the SK government trying to get prepared for the economic shock of having to absorb NK on short notice, which could happen at any time this century. SK is also sending a message to the international society that we should all prepare for the collapse of NK, while sending a message to Kim Jong Un that "you won't last long, and we know it." Just today, the UN General Assembly approved a resolution to refer NK leaders to the International Criminal Court for human rights violations. Totally unrealistic, to be honest, but I guess this is how political pressure works on the world stage. Timing the "we'll spend $0.5T" press release to coincide with the UN resolution is no doubt intended to increase pressure on NK -- if not directly, then at least indirectly by letting the people of NK know that $0.5T is waiting for them if they can get rid of their Dear Leader. (Yeah, the news is censored there, but I'm sure a few thousand people will have heard of it by this time next year.)
- jfaucett 12y ago
  thanks - that provides some context :)
- threeseed 12y ago
  I don't see the people of North Korea ever getting rid of their Dear Leader for two reasons: (1) A significant amount of the working population is part of the government apparatchik especially in Pyongyang which is where any uprising would need to start. (2) There is a pervasive culture of fear. Everyone is well aware of the "we will harm you and your entire family tree" approach to keeping everyone in check. There is a culture of people telling on other people and "someone always watching" which makes it hard to trust anyone. So I think the ICC/UN will be key to all of it in particular China/Russia who need to be convinced to abstain from any resolutions. China's speech to the Australian parliament at the G20 was promising in that they are trying to be better citizens in Asia. And Russia surely doesn't want the US to be continuing to use North Korea as an excuse to build anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe.
  - kijin 12y ago
    I agree, a bottom-up uprising in NK would be difficult to kickstart. But if Kim Jong Un's brutal execution of his own uncle is any indication, there's plenty of room for infighting within the elites, or even a full-blown civil war if things get desperate enough (more trade sactions, another massive famine, etc). Sooner or later, one of the factions might realize that their best exit strategy is to hand the country over to SK in exchange for a guarantee of immunity and a comfy retirement in the Caribbean. If I were the leader of SK, I'd accept that deal and, several years later, arrange for their luxury yachts to have an "accident" in shark-infested waters ;)
- patmcguire 12y ago
  It also sends a message to China that if the regime falls, China won't have to pay for the aftermath.
hackuser 12y ago
There's no indication of it happening. If it happens, it could happen quickly; it's even more unpredictable because so little is known about what goes on inside North Korea. It would be a massive task for South Korea and the people of North Korea are very poor, brutally oppressed, and would have great immediate needs including food, security and political stability for 25 million people. Look at the consequences of political vacuums in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and Somalia to see what happens when those needs aren't met: The situation can break down quickly and become unredeemable. History may depend on how quickly SK acts, which may depend on how well they are prepared. Also, if there is chaos in NK -- on China's border -- China may decide they need to intervene for their own security, or use that as an excuse.
- kijin 12y ago
  > China may decide they need to intervene for their own security, or use that as an excuse. That's definitely something that SK would want to prevent. The last time China "helped" unify a divided Korea, back in the 7th century, they took all the territory north of Pyongyang for themselves. Something similar could happen again unless SK gets the situation under control very quickly. Especially since nukes are involved, and China's been in an expansionist mood lately.
  - hasenj 12y ago
    Interesting history. Is there any link (wikipedia?) talking about that event?
    - GFK_of_xmaspast 12y ago
      cmon dude, it only takes one google search and a couple clicks on wiki to find http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goguryeo%E2%80%93Sui_War http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goguryeo%E2%80%93Sui_War
      - martey 12y ago
        If you read the article on the Goguryeo-Sui war, it is clear that its cause was Goguryeo raids on the Chinese frontier (not a divided Korea) and that Sui China was defeated (which helped lead to the fall of the Sui dynasty). I think kijin was referencing the later conflict between Tang China's intervention in Korea on behalf of Silla: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goguryeo%E2%80%93Tang_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goguryeo%E2%80%93Tang_War

kijin 12y ago

Nothing's on the table as far as what is publicly known. This is just the SK government trying to get prepared for the economic shock of having to absorb NK on short notice, which could happen at any time this century. SK is also sending a message to the international society that we should all prepare for the collapse of NK, while sending a message to Kim Jong Un that "you won't last long, and we know it." Just today, the UN General Assembly approved a resolution to refer NK leaders to the International Criminal Court for human rights violations. Totally unrealistic, to be honest, but I guess this is how political pressure works on the world stage. Timing the "we'll spend $0.5T" press release to coincide with the UN resolution is no doubt intended to increase pressure on NK -- if not directly, then at least indirectly by letting the people of NK know that $0.5T is waiting for them if they can get rid of their Dear Leader. (Yeah, the news is censored there, but I'm sure a few thousand people will have heard of it by this time next year.)

jfaucett 12y ago
thanks - that provides some context :)
threeseed 12y ago
I don't see the people of North Korea ever getting rid of their Dear Leader for two reasons: (1) A significant amount of the working population is part of the government apparatchik especially in Pyongyang which is where any uprising would need to start. (2) There is a pervasive culture of fear. Everyone is well aware of the "we will harm you and your entire family tree" approach to keeping everyone in check. There is a culture of people telling on other people and "someone always watching" which makes it hard to trust anyone. So I think the ICC/UN will be key to all of it in particular China/Russia who need to be convinced to abstain from any resolutions. China's speech to the Australian parliament at the G20 was promising in that they are trying to be better citizens in Asia. And Russia surely doesn't want the US to be continuing to use North Korea as an excuse to build anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe.
- kijin 12y ago
  I agree, a bottom-up uprising in NK would be difficult to kickstart. But if Kim Jong Un's brutal execution of his own uncle is any indication, there's plenty of room for infighting within the elites, or even a full-blown civil war if things get desperate enough (more trade sactions, another massive famine, etc). Sooner or later, one of the factions might realize that their best exit strategy is to hand the country over to SK in exchange for a guarantee of immunity and a comfy retirement in the Caribbean. If I were the leader of SK, I'd accept that deal and, several years later, arrange for their luxury yachts to have an "accident" in shark-infested waters ;)
patmcguire 12y ago
It also sends a message to China that if the regime falls, China won't have to pay for the aftermath.

hackuser 12y ago

There's no indication of it happening. If it happens, it could happen quickly; it's even more unpredictable because so little is known about what goes on inside North Korea. It would be a massive task for South Korea and the people of North Korea are very poor, brutally oppressed, and would have great immediate needs including food, security and political stability for 25 million people. Look at the consequences of political vacuums in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and Somalia to see what happens when those needs aren't met: The situation can break down quickly and become unredeemable. History may depend on how quickly SK acts, which may depend on how well they are prepared. Also, if there is chaos in NK -- on China's border -- China may decide they need to intervene for their own security, or use that as an excuse.

kijin 12y ago
> China may decide they need to intervene for their own security, or use that as an excuse. That's definitely something that SK would want to prevent. The last time China "helped" unify a divided Korea, back in the 7th century, they took all the territory north of Pyongyang for themselves. Something similar could happen again unless SK gets the situation under control very quickly. Especially since nukes are involved, and China's been in an expansionist mood lately.
- hasenj 12y ago
  Interesting history. Is there any link (wikipedia?) talking about that event?
  - GFK_of_xmaspast 12y ago
    cmon dude, it only takes one google search and a couple clicks on wiki to find http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goguryeo%E2%80%93Sui_War http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goguryeo%E2%80%93Sui_War
    - martey 12y ago
      If you read the article on the Goguryeo-Sui war, it is clear that its cause was Goguryeo raids on the Chinese frontier (not a divided Korea) and that Sui China was defeated (which helped lead to the fall of the Sui dynasty). I think kijin was referencing the later conflict between Tang China's intervention in Korea on behalf of Silla: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goguryeo%E2%80%93Tang_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goguryeo%E2%80%93Tang_War