I think it's very unlikely that mobile Flash 10 is going to offer acceptable performance on current generation hardware. So we're probably looking at 18-24 mont

I think it's very unlikely that mobile Flash 10 is going to offer acceptable performance on current generation hardware. So we're probably looking at 18-24 months from today for the market to cycle up to the point where a $99 SmartPhone can handle Mobile Flash 10. On top of that you have to factor in all the legacy devices out there and their lifespan before being replaced with more capable devices. Can Flash really survive the next 2-3 years with a very limited mobile presence? It seems to me most of these devices are going to end up having better support for HTML5 and other emerging technologies much sooner. I suspect by the time Mobile Flash is remotely usable it will primarily be a legacy platform.