I agree with some of what you said, but Bayes' Rule by itself will never give you priors. Regardless of it's unfortunate origins, the way that Ockham's razor i

I agree with some of what you said, but Bayes' Rule by itself will never give you priors. Regardless of it's unfortunate origins, the way that Ockham's razor is used now in common language is a way to give approximate qualitative priors. Also, if you don't have enough mathematics to understand ellipses, then ellipses are quite complicated. I'm comfortable with ellipse-based theories needing additional evidence in this case.