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> But quantitative easing lowers interests Interest rates have been low -- very close to zero -- for a long time now (two decades?). Real interest rates have b
by csa 12y ago
> But quantitative easing lowers interests
Interest rates have been low -- very close to zero -- for a long time now (two decades?). Real interest rates have been negative over the same time period. Interest rates can't really be lowered in any way that is meaningful to the middle class.
If you talk to "regular" people, overall economic confidence is extremely low. People with super-secure jobs (e.g., with the government) are rat-holing their money away while it earns little interest and negative real interest. Many folks don't consume even within their means due to the desire not to appear to be a conspicuous consumer to their peers and/or irrational economic fears (e.g., losing their unlosable job).
Said another way, the velocity of money in Japan is extremely low, and it doesn't show any signs of recovering.
> If your point is that Japan needs more production and less consumption
I don't want to speak for the OP, but the reality is exactly the opposite -- they need to consume more, and there is tons of excess capacity right now.
> lower interest rates also allow businesses to borrow and invest at lower rates.
So few businesses are borrowing money compared to those in a healthy economy. Investment is often put off until (or past) the time it is needed due to the perception of economic uncertainty. Any investment in a business that can be delayed or done cheaply (i.e., penny-wise pound-foolish) is delayed or done cheaply... no amount of low-interest money can incentivize them more. They need to see real signs of a long-term strengthening of the economy before they are willing to take the long-term approach that Japan is so famous for.
The one potential "good" outcome for QE is that the yen will weaken (e.g., I fully expect ~180 yen per dollar or more to happen) and this will make Japanese manufacturing extremely competitive internationally. The problem is that this weakening of the yen creates other forms of turmoil and uncertainty in the rest of the economy.
- jpatokal 12y agoManufacturing is only ~18% of the Japanese economy, and that share is shrinking fast as Japan outsources its factories to China and SE Asia. For the rest, 180 yen to the dollar would just drive higher inflation through eg. fuel prices despite stagnant wages, further weakening the economy. That said, I'm not seeing 180 yen to the dollar any time soon, by most measures the yen is already undervalued. (With the glaring exception of yen vs national debt, but that particular ticking time bomb is not showing imminent signs of explosion.)