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Demographics. Fukishima. China. Japan faces enormous challenges. Aging population means increased healthcare costs supported by a (temporarily) declining wo

by rrggrr 12y ago

Demographics. Fukishima. China. Japan faces enormous challenges. Aging population means increased healthcare costs supported by a (temporarily) declining workforce and decreased tax revenues. Fukishima's costs are incalculable but impact broadly healthcare, manufacturing, farming and fishing. Much Japanese manufacturing has moved to China and adding to that expense is Japan's need to increase its defense spending to provide a small measure of balance in its territorial disputes with its neighbor. A wave of investment and entrepreneurship is required in Japan that I'm not sure the country is capable of fostering at this time. Bearish.

oska 12y ago
> adding to that expense is Japan's need to increase its defense spending to provide a small measure of balance in its territorial disputes with its neighbor Japan's military spending is 7th or 8th largest in the world, depending on who's measuring it. [1] Any conflict with China that actually goes beyond posturing is going to be a small scale skirmish. If that happened both countries would rapidly seek to de-escalate (behind the scenes). The two economies are too closely linked for either country to want full scale war. Their existing military is already more than adequate to deal with any small scale skirmishes. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_e...
- rrggrr 12y ago
  I would categorize Russia's incursion into Ukraine as small scale, and with that deescalated conflict as a recent guide, I think it makes sense for Japan to invest heavily in defense for regional stability.
lovemenot 12y ago
These challenges are indeed real and enormous, as you point out. Nevertheless, we should also keep in mind Japan's proven ability to utterly transform itself in a short time. Meiji and post-WWII are two precedents. Each of these change events required the following conditions: - clear development model to proceed towards - external pressure creates (perceived) existential threat Such conditions do not pertain in Japan now, yet they may do so again in the future. I feel sure that the first is a necessary condition to transformative change. The second condition is perhaps optional.
- rrggrr 12y ago
  It will be about 10 years before, demographically speaking, Japan can literally work its way into growth. Others have posted about the country's reluctance to embrace immigration and I'm afraid that is the necessary transformation unless they can find a way of innovating or enhancing productivity on a massive scale.

by rrggrr 12y ago

oska 12y ago

> adding to that expense is Japan's need to increase its defense spending to provide a small measure of balance in its territorial disputes with its neighbor Japan's military spending is 7th or 8th largest in the world, depending on who's measuring it. [1] Any conflict with China that actually goes beyond posturing is going to be a small scale skirmish. If that happened both countries would rapidly seek to de-escalate (behind the scenes). The two economies are too closely linked for either country to want full scale war. Their existing military is already more than adequate to deal with any small scale skirmishes. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_e...

rrggrr 12y ago
I would categorize Russia's incursion into Ukraine as small scale, and with that deescalated conflict as a recent guide, I think it makes sense for Japan to invest heavily in defense for regional stability.

lovemenot 12y ago

These challenges are indeed real and enormous, as you point out. Nevertheless, we should also keep in mind Japan's proven ability to utterly transform itself in a short time. Meiji and post-WWII are two precedents. Each of these change events required the following conditions: - clear development model to proceed towards - external pressure creates (perceived) existential threat Such conditions do not pertain in Japan now, yet they may do so again in the future. I feel sure that the first is a necessary condition to transformative change. The second condition is perhaps optional.

rrggrr 12y ago
It will be about 10 years before, demographically speaking, Japan can literally work its way into growth. Others have posted about the country's reluctance to embrace immigration and I'm afraid that is the necessary transformation unless they can find a way of innovating or enhancing productivity on a massive scale.