4 ms·

I'd say that getting caught up in a stupid craze is one of the most important learning experiences that a kid can have. One day everybody suddenly starts talkin

I'd say that getting caught up in a stupid craze is one of the most important learning experiences that a kid can have. One day everybody suddenly starts talking about a new thing, and it seems like it's going to be around forever, so you put all your pocket money into getting as much of it as possible. Then, a few months later everybody starts talking about some other new thing and you're left with no money and a whole lot of stuff which you now realize was worthless all along. Suffer that a few times in childhood and you'll be more immune to it in later life. Spend $30 on football cards when you're eight and you'll be less likely to spend $500,000 on suddenly-inflated real estate when you're 35. The lesson doesn't work if your parents actually buy you the cards (rather than giving you pocket money and watching with bemused tolerance as you spend it all on slips of cardboard), though, like this kid's parents apparently did.

smokinn 17y ago
My brothers got that harsh realization with Pokemon. They got some very rare card (don't remember which, never got into it myself) that was supposedly worth 65$ the Pokemon book said. The guy at the shop wouldn't give them anything more than a free new pack for it though. Suddenly the fact that things are really only worth what someone will pay, not what a book says became much more clear.
ShabbyDoo 17y ago
Today, I took my three year-old to our town's annual Fall-at-the-Farm (or whatever it's called). There was a woman there with two of her Alpacas. These animals are the greatest but least discussed bubble. Their only economic value is their wool, and a single alpaca produces about $50 worth each year. Feeding one of these beasts during that time costs $300! Yet, these animals will sell at auction for tens of thousands of dollars. It's the same story as every other bubble, "You make the money when you sell them." If I could figure out how to short sell these beasts, I would. It's too bad I didn't read this comment earlier today or I would have quizzed her about her childhood obsessions.
- hughprime 17y ago
  That's interesting, I didn't know about the alpaca bubble. Now I'm fascinated. Googling a bit I found an article http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/28/national/28alpaca.html?pagewanted=1&oref=login http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/28/national/28alpaca.html?pag... implying that the "people are realizing this is a bubble" stage of the bubble stretches as far back as 2004. And one guy quoted in the article says: When I started, I would tell people I thought the market would be good for another five years. Well, I've been saying that for 15 years Still, alpacas wouldn't be the first bubble in a useless commodity to stretch on for several generations. (That honour belongs, I suppose, to gold -- a bubble at least five thousand years old and still going strong.)
  - ShabbyDoo 17y ago
    I read this paper awhile ago. I'm no agricultural expert (odd for a guy only one generation removed from commercial farming), but it made economic sense. http://www.agecon.ucdavis.edu/extension/update/articles/v9n3_2.pdf http://www.agecon.ucdavis.edu/extension/update/articles/v9n3...
- mynameishere 17y ago
  If I could figure out how to short sell these beasts Go to a farmer, say, "Let me rent your Alpaca for 100 dollars per year", then sell it on the open market for (whatever) 1000 dollars. Then, wait for the prices to crash, buy them back for 50 dollars. Profit. That's what short selling is. Warning: One Alpaca could just as easily bankrupt you.
  - ShabbyDoo 17y ago
    I had thought about this. Some problems that might have solutions: 1. Short selling works for commodities because both sides of the deal agree on the equivalence of entities (a stock, gold brick, whatever). However, what are the specs that make another alpaca equivalent? Some negotiation would be involved. 2. Trust. The seller has to trust me to return an alpaca. To them, someone approaching with such a deal might as well be Bernie Madoff. Ironic given that they themselves have already opted into a bubble of equal proportion. Anybody have any ideas? The effective value of these animals will approach zero. It's just a matter of when.

smokinn 17y ago

My brothers got that harsh realization with Pokemon. They got some very rare card (don't remember which, never got into it myself) that was supposedly worth 65$ the Pokemon book said. The guy at the shop wouldn't give them anything more than a free new pack for it though. Suddenly the fact that things are really only worth what someone will pay, not what a book says became much more clear.

ShabbyDoo 17y ago

Today, I took my three year-old to our town's annual Fall-at-the-Farm (or whatever it's called). There was a woman there with two of her Alpacas. These animals are the greatest but least discussed bubble. Their only economic value is their wool, and a single alpaca produces about $50 worth each year. Feeding one of these beasts during that time costs $300! Yet, these animals will sell at auction for tens of thousands of dollars. It's the same story as every other bubble, "You make the money when you sell them." If I could figure out how to short sell these beasts, I would. It's too bad I didn't read this comment earlier today or I would have quizzed her about her childhood obsessions.

hughprime 17y ago
That's interesting, I didn't know about the alpaca bubble. Now I'm fascinated. Googling a bit I found an article http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/28/national/28alpaca.html?pagewanted=1&oref=login http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/28/national/28alpaca.html?pag... implying that the "people are realizing this is a bubble" stage of the bubble stretches as far back as 2004. And one guy quoted in the article says: When I started, I would tell people I thought the market would be good for another five years. Well, I've been saying that for 15 years Still, alpacas wouldn't be the first bubble in a useless commodity to stretch on for several generations. (That honour belongs, I suppose, to gold -- a bubble at least five thousand years old and still going strong.)
- ShabbyDoo 17y ago
  I read this paper awhile ago. I'm no agricultural expert (odd for a guy only one generation removed from commercial farming), but it made economic sense. http://www.agecon.ucdavis.edu/extension/update/articles/v9n3_2.pdf http://www.agecon.ucdavis.edu/extension/update/articles/v9n3...
mynameishere 17y ago
If I could figure out how to short sell these beasts Go to a farmer, say, "Let me rent your Alpaca for 100 dollars per year", then sell it on the open market for (whatever) 1000 dollars. Then, wait for the prices to crash, buy them back for 50 dollars. Profit. That's what short selling is. Warning: One Alpaca could just as easily bankrupt you.
- ShabbyDoo 17y ago
  I had thought about this. Some problems that might have solutions: 1. Short selling works for commodities because both sides of the deal agree on the equivalence of entities (a stock, gold brick, whatever). However, what are the specs that make another alpaca equivalent? Some negotiation would be involved. 2. Trust. The seller has to trust me to return an alpaca. To them, someone approaching with such a deal might as well be Bernie Madoff. Ironic given that they themselves have already opted into a bubble of equal proportion. Anybody have any ideas? The effective value of these animals will approach zero. It's just a matter of when.