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Efficient market hypothesis does not disagree that some active investors will do incredibly well. It does say that those who do will succeed based on luck rath
by hsitz 12y ago
Efficient market hypothesis does not disagree that some active investors will do incredibly well. It does say that those who do will succeed based on luck rather than smarts/skill.
Also, the efficient market hypothesis is of course not completely true. I take it that Buffett is a good counterexample to the strongest possible form of efficient market hypothesis. However, I also take the fact that there are not many Buffetts in the world as evidence that markets are very efficient.
Buffett, I believe, is a genuine counterexample to EMH. Most other people offered as counterexamples are not; i.e., their results are completely consistent with proper statistical understanding of investment results in perfectly efficient markets.