The analogy of the coin-flipping game has one crucial flaw: in the securities trading world, the coin-flips are not independent. At any point, a participant may

The analogy of the coin-flipping game has one crucial flaw: in the securities trading world, the coin-flips are not independent. At any point, a participant may decide not to flip a coin, and instead make the result of someone else's coin their win condition. Efficient-market theorists would say "Buffett was good at convincing a lot of people to follow his trading strategy instead of flipping their own coins, and he also happened to be lucky." It would actually be more surprising if the 40 people who won weren't in the same lucky group.