4 ms·

However, bear in mind that as time goes on, and there's more data about monthly run rate, that multiple will likely go down. Are there any astrophysicists arou

However, bear in mind that as time goes on, and there's more data about monthly run rate, that multiple will likely go down. Are there any astrophysicists around? This reminds me of the bit about how an asteroid might be at 5% chance of hitting Earth, then tomorrow as it gets closer it's now at 4% chance, then a week from now it's only 1% chance... It's not what you expect, but it makes sense when you understand that the uncertainty of the asteroid's trajectory shrinks with time, dramatically changing the prediction. (Similarly, it could be 5% today, 20% tomorrow, and 99% a week from now)

mattzito 12y ago
Yeah, the picture comes into focus. I think this is one of the reasons why a big chunk of the companies that pivot post-series A do so. You raise some money, and you don't see that revenue growth arc improve (or it flattens). Now, as time goes on, it becomes harder and harder to argue that if you only have a little more: - Time - Money - Talent That you can adjust the curve - the curve is reality. So the only way to justify greater upside/multiple/investment is to change the discussion. Change sales strategy, change product focus, etc. etc.
vkjv 12y ago
That's because yesterday, it wasn't really 5%, it was 5±4%.
- SEMW 12y ago
  In this context, putting error bars on a probability doesn't really make sense. Your uncertainty about the probability is already encapsulated in the probability itself. In other words, 'more uncertain than 5%' wouldn't be 5±x% , it's be, say, 6%. If you have no information at all -- you're as uncertain as you could possibly be -- the probability would just be your prior for this event, and the more data you get pointing to the event either happening or not, the more the probability will move away from your prior towards either 0% or 100%.

4 ms·

However, bear in mind that as time goes on, and there's more data about monthly run rate, that multiple will likely go down. Are there any astrophysicists arou

by sliverstorm 12y ago

mattzito 12y ago
Yeah, the picture comes into focus. I think this is one of the reasons why a big chunk of the companies that pivot post-series A do so. You raise some money, and you don't see that revenue growth arc improve (or it flattens). Now, as time goes on, it becomes harder and harder to argue that if you only have a little more: - Time - Money - Talent That you can adjust the curve - the curve is reality. So the only way to justify greater upside/multiple/investment is to change the discussion. Change sales strategy, change product focus, etc. etc.
vkjv 12y ago
That's because yesterday, it wasn't really 5%, it was 5±4%.
- SEMW 12y ago
  In this context, putting error bars on a probability doesn't really make sense. Your uncertainty about the probability is already encapsulated in the probability itself. In other words, 'more uncertain than 5%' wouldn't be 5±x% , it's be, say, 6%. If you have no information at all -- you're as uncertain as you could possibly be -- the probability would just be your prior for this event, and the more data you get pointing to the event either happening or not, the more the probability will move away from your prior towards either 0% or 100%.