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Let's say a comet is going to impact Earth in a few decades. One proposal among many [0] to divert a comet is to aim a laser at it for a few years, long enough

Let's say a comet is going to impact Earth in a few decades. One proposal among many [0] to divert a comet is to aim a laser at it for a few years, long enough for the outgassing from the laser spot to push the comet onto an orbit that misses the Earth. If you were designing a mission like that, wouldn't you want to have first-hand knowledge about the comet's surface? This is also a baby step. We now feel more confident about landing equipment on irregularly shaped, rapidly spinning objects with negligible gravitational fields. Conservative estimates about the aggregate value of all of the rare heavy metals available inside a near-earth asteroid go into the trillions of dollars. [0] http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/~jmelosh/HazardsDeflect.pdf http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/~jmelosh/HazardsDeflect.pdf

Cthulhu_ 12y ago
I think your latter point (about the value of asteroids) will have a much larger impact on the world and spacefaring in general than, say, observations about the temperature of an asteroid. If it turns out there's trillions worth of materials in asteroids, then I can guarantee the world's budget for spacefaring will go up a hundredfold within a few years. Going to space for science (or beating the Russians) is one thing, going there for profit is a completely different matter and will attract heavy investors.
- johndevor 12y ago
  One problem with the space asteroid mining argument is that if you flood the market with precious metals, the value of them will plummet.
johndevor 12y ago
>Let's say a comet is going to impact Earth in a few decades. You can't just make up stuff like this... sure, it could happen but you have to go off probability. What's the probability an asteroid will end all life on earth in the next thousand years? I'd guess not very likely.
- jarek 12y ago
  It doesn't have to end all life on earth, it just has to end ours. Moss and bacteria will survive a lot more than we will. Plus, to be rational, you have to evaluate not only probability but also potential losses, and multiply the two. A messed-up climate causing crop failures and population reverting to, say, middle ages counts would cost, say, 100 years' worth of 95% of current world GDP. Human extinction, from a human point of view, has infinite cost.

Cthulhu_ 12y ago

I think your latter point (about the value of asteroids) will have a much larger impact on the world and spacefaring in general than, say, observations about the temperature of an asteroid. If it turns out there's trillions worth of materials in asteroids, then I can guarantee the world's budget for spacefaring will go up a hundredfold within a few years. Going to space for science (or beating the Russians) is one thing, going there for profit is a completely different matter and will attract heavy investors.

johndevor 12y ago
One problem with the space asteroid mining argument is that if you flood the market with precious metals, the value of them will plummet.

johndevor 12y ago

>Let's say a comet is going to impact Earth in a few decades. You can't just make up stuff like this... sure, it could happen but you have to go off probability. What's the probability an asteroid will end all life on earth in the next thousand years? I'd guess not very likely.

jarek 12y ago
It doesn't have to end all life on earth, it just has to end ours. Moss and bacteria will survive a lot more than we will. Plus, to be rational, you have to evaluate not only probability but also potential losses, and multiply the two. A messed-up climate causing crop failures and population reverting to, say, middle ages counts would cost, say, 100 years' worth of 95% of current world GDP. Human extinction, from a human point of view, has infinite cost.